Methanol: Futures continued to rise and spot prices increased within a narrow range

On July 2, the methanol market price index was 2157.75, up 0.68 from the previous working day and 0.03% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on July 1:

China CFR 292-295 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 107108 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia 355-356 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 325.75-326.75 euros / ton, up 6 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (- 20), North Route: 2070-2120 (20), Lunan: 2370-2380 (- 10), Henan: 2330-2365 (0), Shanxi: 2180-2300 (- 20), Port: 25302550 (- 15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (0amp 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 300-340 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-260 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-180 (0max 0)

Spot marketToday, the price of methanol market rose narrowly, and the futures market was boosted by the upward adjustment of crude oil, which formed a certain support for the mentality of the operators in the market, and with the operation of filling air downstream, the trading atmosphere in the market was slightly better than that in the earlier period, and the shipments of manufacturers in the main producing areas were relatively smooth. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, the quotation on the southern route is around 2050-2060 yuan / ton, which is stable, and the quotation on the northern line is around 2070-2120 yuan / ton, and the low end is raised by 20 yuan / ton. The shipment situation of manufacturers in the region is better, with the downstream phased replenishment, the overall inventory of manufacturers has been reduced, and the quotation mentality of some manufacturers is strong. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2340-2360 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Methanol futures are fluctuating upward, and some traders and downstream actively take goods, and the trading atmosphere is OK. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2280-2350 yuan / ton today. At present, the inventory pressure of most methanol enterprises in the market is not great, and the willingness of the manufacturers is obvious under the support of low storage, but the demand end of the methanol market has not improved obviously in a short period of time. It is difficult to sell volume in the market. Today, the price in Shanxi is 2180-2300 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the traditional downstream industry has entered the off-season of consumption, the rigid demand in the methanol market is reduced, the downstream manufacturers keep down the price operation, and most of the purchases are dominated by rigid demand.

Port marketMethanol futures rose today. Paper goods are shipped at high prices, mainly arbitrage buying, cautious delivery, weakening near-end basis, and widening price spreads within the month. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 7 transaction price: 2530-2550, base difference 09-20 swap color 15 position 7 deal: 2550-2555, base difference 09-20 shock color 15 transaction 7 transaction: 2535-2565, base difference 09-10 Dynamite 7 transaction: 2575-2585, basis difference 09 million 15.

Future forecast:Recently, the overall trading situation in the mainland market has improved compared with the previous period, and the futures market fluctuates upwards, supporting the mentality of manufacturers to a certain extent, and the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market to replenish goods is OK. With the phased operation of operators to fill the gap, the shipments of manufacturers in the main production areas have improved compared with the previous period, and there are recent maintenance plans for some regional installations in the mainland market, and devices such as Xinjiang Guanghui and Shandong Union have been stopped. Changqing, Hebi and other devices are stored in the maintenance plan in mid-July, and there is some favorable support at the supply end, but considering that there is no obvious favorable support in the downstream market for the time being, some operators in the field still have a certain wait-and-see mood towards the future. At present, the short-term methanol market price is expected to adjust in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.