Daily Review of Urea: New orders follow up, reduction, companies reduce prices and collect orders (July 2)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on July 2 was 2,372.55, a decrease of 13.05 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.55% and a year-on-year increase of 4.99%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 2094, the highest price is 2115, the lowest price is 2087, the settlement price is 2100, and the closing price is 2101. The closing price is 8% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 0.38%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2087-2115; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 189; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 2532 lots today, and so far, it has held 201597 lots.

Today, urea futures prices mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with the market environment. Expectations of increased supply and reduced demand still exist. There is still scattered demand and demand in the short term, but the overall price performance is still mainly weak. However, the overall commodity market environment has shown signs of stabilization and recovery in the near future. Coupled with the upward trend in international prices, it has formed certain support for the domestic market. In the short term, it may still remain volatile and await new drivers.

Spot market analysis:

Today, domestic ureamarketPrices continue to be lowered, and companies 'orders for orders have gradually decreased. However, a small number of new orders have been followed up. Companies have poor orders and have lowered their orders more.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been lowered to 2,450 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,260 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,260 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,160 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,360 - 2,450 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China fell to 2,250 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to carry out pre-orders mainly, and orders to be issued have gradually decreased. However, the small amount of follow-up of new orders has been limited. Sales pressure has gradually emerged. Most quotations have continued to be consolidated downward within a narrow range. Among them, companies with few orders have significantly loosened offers. In terms of the market, the market situation is weak and downward, the trading atmosphere is gradually weakening, the number of new orders has decreased significantly, and the domestic market situation continues to fall. In terms of supply, the industry's supply continues to be consolidated at a high level, and the operating rate remains above 80%. Currently, there is little room for equipment start-up and improvement, and some units also have unexpected maintenance disturbances. On the demand side, there is a small amount of phased replenishment needs in some areas where agricultural needs are needed, and a small amount of agricultural topdressing is followed up, which is weak in support; industrial needs are also small, and downstream factories are cautiously following up on replenishment.

On the whole, the current urea market lacks effective positive support, and the market continues to be weak and deadlocked. Downstream operators are cautious, and companies are mainly shipping pre-order orders. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to gradually decrease in a short period of time.