Methanol: Market prices in some regions in the mainland have increased after downstream replenishment

On July 1, the methanol market price index was 2157.06, up 4.89 from the previous working day and 0.23% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 28:

China CFR 293-298 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton

Us FOB 107108 cents per gallon, flat

Us $357-358 per ton in Southeast Asia, Ping

European FOB 319.75-320.75 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2270 (0), North Route: 2050-2100 (10), Lunan: 2380 (0), Henan: 2330-2340 (0), Shanxi: 2200-2280 (0), Port: 2520-2535 (- 15)

Freight:

Northern route-northern Shandong 230-290 (- 10amp 0), northern route-southern Shandong 300-340 (- 30Compare 30), southern route-northern Shandong 230-260 (0max 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 140-180 (0gammer 10)

Spot marketToday, the spot market price of methanol is raised by a narrow range, and some enterprises in the northwest are mainly sold at a premium, downstream and traders meet low rigid demand for replenishment, the market buying atmosphere is OK, the futures market is fluctuating, and the price of the port spot market is adjusted with the market. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised in a narrow range, the price in the south line is around 2050-2060 yuan / ton, stable, the price in the north line is around 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end is raised by 10 yuan / ton, and the overall shipment situation of the manufacturers in the region is better. Rongxin quoted the bidding price to 2040 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, the quantity is 8000 tons, and the final transaction is 2060 yuan / ton. Yulin Yanzhou Mining's starting bidding price is 2090 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, the quantity is 3000 tons. In the end, all 2100-2110 yuan / ton were sold. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2340-2360 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The auction price in the peripheral area is OK, but the market demand in the region remains weak and the quotation of manufacturers does not change much. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2280-2350 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the week, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the trading volume of new orders is limited. Shanxi quotes 2200-2280 yuan / ton today, and the weak demand for methanol in the region remains unchanged. The fundamentals are not good, and the overall quotation of manufacturers does not change much.

Port marketToday, methanol futures fell in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. Spot a small amount of rigid demand. Paper goods shipments are active, individual bargains are received, arbitrage buying is the main, the basis is weak and fast within the month, the long-term fluctuation is small, and the price difference between 7 and 8 has widened. The overall transaction price is OK, Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2525-2535, base difference 09-10 Universe: deal 7 deal: 2520-2535, base difference 09-10 picturesque transaction 7 transaction: 2530-2540, base difference 09-8 pm transaction 7 transaction: 2530-2550, basis difference 09-5 pound 10 transaction 8 transaction: 2555-2565, basis difference 09-10 prime 25.

Future forecast:At present, the mainland market is still in a situation of oversupply. Although the terminal downstream and traders have a certain replenishment demand, the periodic replenishment is difficult to form a certain support to the market, and the current weak demand in the downstream market is still not significantly improved. In the short term, there is no obvious positive support for the fundamentals of methanol. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the mainland market remains the same, and the price in the mainland market continues to push up or is insufficient. It is expected that the methanol market price will be adjusted narrowly in the short term, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.