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PVC Futures Analysis:July 1st V2409 contract opening price: 6045, highest price: 6094, lowest price: 6030, position: 855122, settlement price: 6063, yesterday settlement: 6042, up 21, daily trading volume: 710779 lots, precipitated capital: 3.646 billion, capital inflow: 10.73 million.
List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton
PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market reversed and began to rise slightly in the afternoon. Compared with the valuation, it rose 20 yuan / ton in North China, 30-40 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10 yuan / ton in Central China and stable in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises continued to remain stable, and some enterprises began to slightly raise their ex-factory quotations of 20-50 yuan / ton. the futures price rose in the afternoon after the shock, and the spot market offer was relatively stable in the morning and slightly pushed up in the afternoon. At present, spot market offer and one-mouthed price coexist, including 09 contract in East China and 09 contract in South China. North 09 contract-(500-580), southwest 09 contract-(450). At the beginning of the week, although the price of the spot market rose in the afternoon, the corresponding transaction did not improve, and the downstream held a certain wait-and-see mentality to the market after the price rise. in addition, the price advantage of the point price transaction was not obvious for the time being, and the overall purchase was light.
From the perspective of futures:The opening price of the night market of PVC2409 contract is arranged in a narrow range, and even weakens slightly inside the market. Futures prices began to rise in volatility after the start of morning trading, rose further in the afternoon, and closed higher in late trading. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 6030 to 6094 throughout the day, with a spread of 64. 09 contracts reduced by 2835 positions, with 855122 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6255, and positions of 125698 hands.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures:The trend of the futures price of PVC2409 contract showed a certain upward trend, and there was no small capital inflow on the surface. In terms of transaction, it opened 24.1% more than the short opening 21.9%, the market showed a small long sentiment, and the high price of 6094 was in line with our high expectations. The technical level shows that the opening of the three rails of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) narrows, the lower rail turns upward, and the overall futures price fluctuates between the middle and lower rails, slightly away from the horizontal trend of the lower range, and the KD line at the daily level crosses. On the whole, the volatility of futures prices in the short term may show some positive performance, but the range of highs may be limited, observing the performance in the range of 6030-6140.
Spot aspect:It coincides with a slight rise in prices in the two cities on Monday, including tentative increases in factory offers from upstream production enterprises, but in terms of transactions, whether it is a first-generation contract or the shipments of traders, we have not heard of a better deal. On the contrary, after the point price lost its advantage, the downstream trading wait-and-see is not active. From the point of view of supply and demand, after entering July, PVC production enterprises still have maintenance, but the demand side is still not good according to the feedback of downstream demand, and the high inventory of supply and demand game is always a consensus. In terms of other fundamentals, the price of calcium carbide has declined recently, the pressure on the cost port of the calcium carbide method has been alleviated, and the share of exports is relatively stable, but sea freight has increased significantly. At present, there is no obvious guided stimulus in the policy port and the message port. on the basis of the current consensus fundamentals, after the prices of the two markets are in a continuous test low range, it is expected that the spot market will continue to maintain a narrow adjustment in the short term. Waiting for a change.
