[Soda ash] Soda ash Weekly Review: Soda ash prices are stable and declining, and market sentiment is more pessimistic

Soda ash prices are stable and declining. Market sentiment is relatively pessimistic (6.27 Soda Ash Weekly Review)

1. Analysis of domestic soda ash market

This week, the domestic soda ash market continued to be weak, and prices continued to fall, with a drop of around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the domestic light soda price was 2,050 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda was 2,150 - 2,350 yuan/ton; There were fewer market maintenance companies this week, market start-ups declined, and soda ash output remained high during the week; With the downward adjustment of soda ash prices, the transaction situation of new orders in the market has been weak. Some companies have increased their accumulated stocks, shipping pressure is high, and the market continues to flow into low-priced sources of goods; demand is weak, downstream companies are cautious in purchasing, and demand remains strong. The transaction atmosphere continues to be light, and some people are more bearish on the future outlook. The market is pessimistic, and the soda ash market remains weak.

In terms of futures, soda ash prices continued to be weak during the week. The sentiment in the soda ash market remains sluggish this week, and downstream demand remains cautious. Coupled with the rush to take orders in the middle reaches and squeeze orders from soda plants, soda plants 'inventories continue to grow, and negative market feedback continues. However, the current futures price is still within a reasonable valuation range, and the downward trend is limited. In addition, there are still disturbances from maintenance plans and macro atmosphere support from important meetings in the future. In the short term, it may still maintain a narrow range of fluctuations waiting for new drivers.

Forecast for next week: soda ash companies will maintain a high level of construction, maintenance plans for individual enterprise villages at the beginning of next month, and preliminary maintenance will resume, and supply will continue to be sufficient; while the soda ash market is weak, high-priced shipments are under great pressure, low-priced supplies continue to increase, and the soda ash market will remain weak. Running, the market is relatively pessimistic, and there is no positive factor to support it. The soda ash market will fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of June 27 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 681.6 yuan/ton, up 10.6 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 435.45 yuan/ton, down 52.55 yuan/ton from the previous week.

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

About 87.30% of the soda ash industry started this week, a decrease of 2.57% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 726,000 tons.

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 967,000 tons, which was around 900,000 tons last week, an increase of 67,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 6.93%.