PVC: The futures price risk broke through the prefix 6, and then hit the bottom and rebounded. The market opened too much, and the spot quotation was chaotic.

PVC Futures Analysis:June 28th V2409 contract opening price: 6036, highest price: 6070, lowest price: 6006, position: 857957, settlement price: 6042, yesterday settlement: 6052, down 10, daily trading volume: 795623 lots, precipitated capital: 3.635 billion, capital outflow: 19.25 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction price in the domestic PVC market is adjusted in a narrow range, and the quotation in the spot market is relatively chaotic. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 30 yuan / ton in North China, 30 yuan / ton in East China, 10 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, stable in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices continue to remain stable, coinciding with Friday upstream price adjustment mentality is weak to pre-signed quotation, there is no obvious adjustment. Futures low and narrow range arrangement, the spot market quotation began to differ, in the morning session heard that the transaction occasionally concession, the current spot market offer and a mouthful price coexist, the basis adjustment is not much, including East China basis offer 09 contract-(300-350), South China 09 contract-(250-280), North 09 contract-(530-580), Southwest 09 contract-(450). Even if there is an advantage in this point price, there is no obvious replenishment sentiment downstream, and the rigid demand procurement pace remains the same.

From the perspective of futures:The opening price of PVC2409 contract rose slightly and then fell, with an intraday low of 6006 falling below the prefix. After the start of morning trading, the futures price bottomed out and rebounded, showing a certain upward performance, finishing in a narrow range in the afternoon. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 6006 to 6070 throughout the day, with a spread of 63. 09 contracts reduced their positions by 7260 lots, with 857957 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6215 and 123796 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:The low point of the futures price of the PVC2409 contract 6006 is only six points below the prefix 6. On the one hand, the operation of the futures price continues to be weak, on the other hand, the fluctuation of the futures price is relatively narrow, but there is still a certain amount of single entry in the area near the prefix 6. In terms of transaction, the short opening is 23.4% higher than the 22.1% higher. The technical level shows that the three-track openings of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) are still all downward, showing an obvious short trend, but at present, the KD line at the daily level is anxious, and there is a trend of continuous horizontal trading at the low level, so although the arrangement is too short, the trend of the low horizontal market may indicate the coming of the new market, and the operation of the futures price in the short term may still test the range of the low level from 6000 to 6100, but be wary of the rebound of the market.

Spot aspect:First of all, from the point of view of the continuous horizontal test of the low level of the futures market, the overall prices of the two markets have entered a relatively stable low stage, and the time node comes to July in the third quarter. No matter from the economic point of view or from the overall macro commodity point of view, there is still a certain expectation, so in the continuous horizontal state of the prices of the two markets, we need a continuous short factor again. At present, it is not realistic, so we think that the prices of the two cities need to be vigilant against the reversal of the market. On the one hand, commodities are relatively sensitive to policy feedback, on the other hand, in the case of weak basic consensus, the prices of the two cities do not see any further downward trend, but continue to test. Therefore, we think that the two markets should not be overly bearish, but in the short term, PVC spot market prices may still be low and narrow, and there are still some expectations in the medium-term market.