PVC: The futures price has a small breakthrough at a high point. Relative to operating preference, the spot market has rebounded slightly

PVC Futures Analysis:June 26th V2409 contract opening price: 6086, highest price: 6100, lowest price: 6045, position: 836204, settlement price: 6065, yesterday settlement: 6048, up 17, daily trading volume: 722412 lots, precipitated capital: 3.557 billion, capital outflow: 37.06 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market rose slightly, and the spot market improved slightly. Compared with the valuation, it rose 10-30 yuan / ton in North China, 10-30 yuan / ton in East China, 30 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, stable in Central China and 30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remain basically stable, no obvious price adjustment action continues to wait and see, the first generation of contracts are also based on basic volume, futures run slightly better in a narrow range, the spot market quotes are slightly higher than yesterday, and the spot price and the spot price coexist, the basis remains unchanged, of which East China basis offer 09 contract-(300,350) South China 09 contract-(250-280), North 09 contract-(530-580), Southwest 09 contract-(450). Although the two quotation methods coexist, there is no better trading outside the rigid demand in the spot market, and the downstream feedback on the quotation after a small increase is relatively insipid, buying down but not buying up continues.

From the perspective of futures:The opening price of PVC2409 contract opened high and low in night trading, but the decline was not large and then began to fluctuate. After the start of morning trading, the price fluctuation is still in a narrow range on the basis of night trading, and the price rose slightly in late afternoon trading. 2409 contracts range from 6045 to 6100 throughout the day, with a spread of 55.09contract reducing 7602 positions, with 836204 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6229 and 123472 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures:PVC2409 contract futures opened high and low at night, and the high price of 6100 formed a small breakthrough during the week, but the overall fluctuation range is still running in the low relative horizontal market, only today's volatility is relative preference, in terms of trading, among which the short opening is 24.0% compared with opening more than 21.6%. In view of the pressure of spot sales to enter the hedging at a relatively high level, the total transaction volume is still low and lack of capital participation. Technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks are still downward, but the daily KD line has quietly shown a golden fork trend, MACD line is still dead fork trend. In the short term, we think or continue to test the low range of 6030-6130 for the operation of futures prices.

Spot aspect:The spot market has slightly increased in the operation of relative preference of futures price for two consecutive days, but the downstream feedback is relatively insipid, and there is no obvious new idea in the transaction of spot. And when the futures price runs to a relatively high level, there is a certain hedging policy with point price for sales, and 09 contract registration warehouse receipts continue to increase, which shows that the pressure of spot sales is greater. At present, the starting load of production enterprises is stable and high, but the high social inventory basically forms obvious short-term constraints in the two cities, which makes the prices of the two cities weak after excluding unexpected factors and policy ports. Other fundamentals, calcium carbide and blue carbon prices down today, calcium carbide cost port pressure has been alleviated. On the whole, there is still no obvious factor to guide the PVC spot market in the short term, so the price is in a dilemma. In the medium term, there is still a certain expectation from the current time node.