Daily Review of Urea: Companies are better to obtain low-cost orders and quotes start to rise this week (June 24)

Domestic urea price index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 24 was 2,369.68, an increase of 11.36 from last Friday, a month-on-month increase of 0.48% and a year-on-year increase of 10.39%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2094, the highest price is 2094, the lowest price is 2065, the settlement price is 2075, and the closing price is 2073. The closing price is 22% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.05% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2065-2094; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 227; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 9903 lots today, and so far, the position is 201679 lots.

Today, urea futures prices are weak and mainly volatile. Urea itself lacks a strong driving force and mainly fluctuates within a narrow range with the overall commodity market sentiment. Expectations of the recent fundamentals of the spot market have not yet been fully realized. The follow-up of supply and agricultural demand is often repeated, and there is still some support for prices. In the short term, the market may remain volatile and wait for new drivers to emerge.

Spot market analysis:

Today, domestic ureamarketPrices are rising, and companies are better to collect orders after lowering prices. Starting this week, all quotations have increased to control orders.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,440 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,260 - 2,340 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,250 - 2,460 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,170 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,350 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,380 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 2,260 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories,The effect of manufacturers reducing prices and collecting orders has improved, and market transactions have improved. Currently, orders to be issued have accumulated, and the pressure on early sales has been alleviated. Factory quotations have increased steadily and moderately this week.In terms of the market, the market closed at low prices, and downstream follow-up sentiment rose.However, as prices rose again, the transaction volume of new orders gradually shrank, and the purchasing sentiment of operators was consolidating and waiting.。On the supply side, the recent increase in industry inspections and frequent equipment failures in enterprises have occurred. Although preliminary inspections have been resumed one after another, the overall industry's daily production has fluctuated and maintained stable operation. On the demand side,Due to weather conditions, the agricultural market has slowed down the speed of fertilizer preparation and waited for effective rainfall. The downstream follow-up mentality is cautious, and farmers need to purchase appropriate amounts of replenishment; the start-up of compound fertilizer factories continues to decline, and more units have reduced production and stopped. The purchasing follow-up mentality is cautious, and the amount of fertilizer preparation is limited.。

Overall, the current urea market isSupported by pending orders, early sales pressure has been alleviated, and orders have been shipped one after another, it is expected that the urea market price will fluctuate within a narrow range in a short period of time.