Daily review of urea: Weak demand, consolidation, market prices are loose and lowered (June 20)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 20 was 2,359.23, a decrease of 5.91 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.25% and a year-on-year increase of 9.77%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 2060, the highest price is 2083, the lowest price is 2054, the settlement price is 2072, and the closing price is 2078. The closing price has increased by 6 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.29% month-on-month. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 2054-2083; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 172; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 2662 lots today, and so far, the position has been held by 213509 lots.

Today, the urea futures market as a whole fluctuates with the strong market environment. The fundamentals of urea itself are expected to weaken, and the follow-up situation of agricultural demand has relatively limited improvement in the market. Orders received by manufacturers have weakened slightly, and it is difficult for short-term market prices to have a strong upward drive. However, given the current signs of stabilization in the overall commodity market and international urea prices still have support for China, and they may still be waiting for new drivers in the future as the market environment fluctuates.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's ureamarketPrices continued to stabilize and decline, new orders in the market were weak, and companies 'quotations were stable and moderate under the support of waiting companies.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,440 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,240 - 2,290 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,240 - 2,460 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,160 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,350 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,380 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 2,260 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the follow-up situation of new orders is average. Manufacturers continue to implement orders received in advance in the early stage, inventories have dropped within a narrow range, and quotations have been stable and reduced by a small margin. In terms of the market, the market situation has stabilized and moved slightly. After price cuts, new orders have been sold generally. The trading atmosphere has gradually weakened. The market continues to be weak and consolidated with limited fluctuations. In terms of supply, early maintenance equipment has been restored one after another, and supply continues to gradually increase. Nissan is improving. Although equipment failures have occurred frequently in some areas recently, the supply in the industry has remained relatively abundant in the short term. In terms of demand, agricultural demand shows regional differences. Agricultural demand in the northern market is followed up, driving companies in surrounding areas to ship goods. This provides good support for the market and supports the current market price to operate steadily and firmly; industrial demand continues to weaken steadily, and downstream compound fertilizer factory procurement With the decrease in shipments and the decrease in start-ups, the ability to purchase raw materials has weakened.

On the whole, the current demand for urea market is weak and consolidated, follow-up is limited, prices continue to rise, and manufacturers 'quotations are firm and slightly falling under the support of waiting. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate downward within a narrow range in a short period of time, and prices will be loosened and lowered.