Daily Review of Urea: Prices rose back under the support of a large number of low-priced orders from manufacturers (June 17)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 17 was 2,369.55, an increase of 19.41 from last Friday, a month-on-month increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 12.51%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract: 2094, the highest price: 2101, the lowest price: 2068, the settlement price: 2082, the closing price: 2088, the closing price increased by 12 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.58% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2068-2101; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 202; the 09 contract has increased its position by 241 lots today, and so far, it has held 221414 lots.

Urea futures prices performed relatively strongly today, but absolute price changes were limited. Recently, the fundamentals of urea still show signs of marginal weakening. However, with the downward trend in prices and the improvement of agricultural demand conditions, demand has improved. Spot prices in the urea market have shown signs of stabilizing and recovering, which has formed certain support for futures prices. In the short term, it can be observed that agricultural demand will follow up with persistent problems. The subsequent sharp rise drive has not yet been seen. A small rebound formed by periodic demand replenishment may be difficult to transform the medium-term weakness.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have rebounded more. Last week, after corporate quotations were lowered, orders were closed better. With a lot of support, the quotations rose firmly at the beginning of this week.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,440 - 2,470 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,250 - 2,340 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,250 - 2,460 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,260 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,170 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,350 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,380 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 2,270 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, after manufacturers 'quotations were continuously lowered last week, the acceptance situation of some new orders showed obvious signs of improvement, and the pressure on early sales was alleviated. This week, based on the support of pending orders, the price reduction was suspended, and some factory quotations were consolidated upward. In terms of the market, after a previous round of low-price orders, the market's decline has been suspended. Operators are more active in following up on low prices, and their current mentality is mainly wait-and-see. In terms of supply, industry supply continues to improve, Nissan shows a recovery trend, corporate inventories also continue to rise, and overall industry supply is high. On the demand side, most farmers need topdressing and fertilizer preparation based on rain conditions. Many places in the north are affected by high temperatures and drought, and the postponement of topdressing and warehousing is postponed; compound fertilizer production has come to an end, factory replenishment demand has declined, and the enthusiasm for raw materials has cooled. The overall demand side support is weak, so follow up cautiously and wait and see.

On the whole, the current urea market has a large number of orders to be issued after low-priced orders are received. The price is supported in a short period of time, and the quotation is firm and rising. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to reduce prices and collect orders as the orders decrease in the short period of time.