Methanol: The current range of methanol period fluctuates and the market transaction atmosphere is general

On June 14, the methanol market price index was 2216.55, down 0.43 from yesterday and 0.02 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 13:

China's CFR is US $300,309 / ton, down US $4 / ton.

Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia: us $357-358 per ton, Ping

European FOB 326.75-327.75 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2310-2330 (0), North Route: 2120-2140 (0), Lunan: 2482490 (0), Henan: 2380-2400 (- 10), Shanxi: 2270-2350 (0), Port: 25452560 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 270-320 (0ax 10), North Line-South Shandong 330-360 (0ax 10), South Line-Northern Shandong 260-290 (0ax 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-200 (0max 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is arranged in a narrow range, the downstream low price rigid demand is mainly traded, the futures market is fluctuating, the spot basis is weak, and the negotiation is OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is arranged in a narrow range, the quotation on the southern route is around 2180 yuan / ton, stable, and the quotation on the northern line is around 2110-2140 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory of manufacturers in the region is mostly kept at a medium and low level, and the rigid demand for bargain in the lower reaches is bought, and the quotation of manufacturers is stable. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is weak, with 2480-2490 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2430-2450 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Methanol futures continue to fall, the market trading atmosphere cools slightly, and downstream rigid demand is mainly purchased. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2430-2450 yuan / ton today, but the follow-up in the lower reaches of the region is limited. Some operators in the market hold a certain wait-and-see mood towards the future, and the manufacturers' quotations fluctuate little. Shanxi quotes 2380-2400 yuan / ton today, and the overall trading atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. The shipping atmosphere continues, the delivery within the month is cautious, the basis is weak; in the far month, a small amount of bargain-hunting, the basis is stable. The price difference between months widened. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main Port transaction Price: spot transaction: 2535-2545, basis 09: 10, margin 09: 10, margin 15: 6, margin: 2530-2540, basis: 09: 5, margin 13: 7: 2535-2555, basis: 09: 15: 20: 8 : 2550-2560, the basis difference is 0925max 30.

Future forecast: in the near future, the overall supply of the Chinese market is still abundant, methanol from some olefin plants in the main producing areas continues to be exported, the supply of negotiable goods in the market is still abundant, and some manufacturers in the region still have a certain depot demand, and there is no obvious favorable support on the supply side in the short term, and at present, some traditional downstream markets have also entered the consumer off-season, and the performance of terminal market demand is poor, although the Dragon Boat Festival holiday has ended. However, the enthusiasm of downstream operators to enter the market to replenish stock is general, some operators still give priority to a small amount of rigid demand, and the demand side is generally supported by methanol. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market still exists, and in the later stage, in order to reduce inventory and reduce the possibility of shipment, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price range will fluctuate mainly, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.