1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
This week, prices in some areas of China's soda ash market have adjusted within a narrow range. As of Thursday, China's light soda ash prices are between 2,200 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 2,300 - 2,550 yuan/ton; this week, some companies have installed equipment maintenance and market start-up. Soda ash production was low during the week, and soda ash prices increased slightly at the beginning of the week; some orders were in hand in the early stage, and the majority of delivery orders, but the sentiment for signing new orders has weakened, and the inventory of individual manufacturers has increased; The overall demand in the downstream market has remained stable, but some regions have some resistance to high-priced soda ash. Recently, the price of new orders has dropped slightly. Most companies have just needed to replenish their warehouses. The mainstream price of soda ash has temporarily stabilized, and some prices have been negotiated individually.
In terms of futures, soda ash prices fell significantly month-on-month during the week. Its own fundamental reality is still in a strong pattern of tight supply and demand. However, with the completion of the implementation of the maintenance plans of most soda plants, output may gradually pick up. The phased easing of supply and demand relations is expected to be combined with the cooling of macro sentiment. After the market goes down within the week, the spot market will have a certain negative feedback. However, the actual pattern and subsequent tensions between supply and demand cannot be alleviated in a short time, and soda ash prices still have strong support.
Forecast for next week: As maintenance companies resume production and have no maintenance plans in the near future, supply expectations will increase; due to the resistance of downstream procurement of high-priced soda ash, the market transaction atmosphere has weakened, and companies are mainly waiting and seeing. However, most soda plants have little pressure on their own inventory, and there is little willingness to significantly reduce prices. In the short term, the soda ash market may remain volatile.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of June 6 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 912 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 530.5 yuan/ton, up 75.5 yuan/ton from the previous week.
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
About 82.0% of the soda ash industry started this week, down 0.61% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week was about 683,100 tons.
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 812,000 tons, compared with around 820,000 tons last week, a month-on-month decrease of 8,000 tons, or 0.99%.
