Daily Review of Urea: Downstream willingness to purchase at high prices weakens and price growth slows down (June 6)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 6 was 2,425.59, an increase of 3.18 from yesterday, an increase of 0.13% month-on-month and an increase of 8.40% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2179, the highest price is 2180, the lowest price is 2139, the settlement price is 2154, and the closing price is 2151. The closing price is 38 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.74% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2139-2180; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 259; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 2179 lots today, and so far, it has held 213482 lots.

Today, the performance of urea futures prices was relatively weak. During the week, output rebounded month-on-month. The follow-up on the demand side was slightly weak. Expectations were basically weakened or gradually realized. In the short term, we need to pay attention to whether the sustainability of agricultural demand can boost the market.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to rise, and market supply is still tight, which is good for high price consolidation. However, under the influence of emotions, prices have risen sharply under pressure, and the market has been deadlocked for a short time.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,420 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,370 - 2,440 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,350 - 2,470 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,350 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,250 - 2,470 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,450 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,400 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers receive new orders and reduce their receipts, continue to ship pre-received orders, and continue to be shipped out of the warehouse. The current inventory is still at a low level. Under the support of short-term waiting, sales pressure is relatively small, which provides certain support for prices, and the company's quotations are stable. Upward sorting. In terms of the market, export news once again affected the market. The actual transaction volume dropped, and downstream chasing high spirits were cautious. However, with the support of readiness and good supply, the market continued to operate strongly. In terms of supply, the industry's Nissan has begun to rebound slightly, but the pace is still slow, and local supply is still tight. New units have been put into production one after another this month, and supply pressure is expected to gradually emerge. On the demand side, the agricultural market has entered the final stage this month, and the demand side has stabilized and declined; industrial downstream factories are resistant to the current high market prices, and the start of compound fertilizers has dropped slightly. However, the purchase of raw material urea has still followed up in the short term. It is expected that future purchases will gradually decline and enter a demand gap, and there is a risk of falling demand.

On the whole, the current upward trend of the urea market shows signs of slowing down, and the demand side is weak to follow up on high prices. Companies 'quotations are firm for a short time under the support of waiting. It is expected that the urea market price will be stable in the short term, and the quotations will continue to move upwards in the short term.