Daily Review of Urea: Fertilizer use in the northern market continues to follow up on manufacturers 'quotations (June 5)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 5 was 2,422.41, an increase of 12.14 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.50% and a year-on-year increase of 7.73%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract: 2192, the highest price: 2204, the lowest price: 2176, the settlement price: 2189, the closing price: 2185. The closing price increased by 26 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.20% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2176-2204; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 215; the 09 contract has increased its position by 3558 lots today, and so far, it has held 215661 lots.

Urea futures prices performed strongly today. Although the overall market environment is still weak, urea's own fundamentals continue to be strong, demand for agricultural fertilizers has followed up well, expectations of weakening fundamentals have been postponed again, and the futures spot market has resonated upward.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to rise. The follow-up of fertilizer use in the northern market led to an increase in overall China's quotations, and the market trading atmosphere remained unchanged.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,420 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,370 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,340 - 2,470 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,350 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,250 - 2,470 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,450 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,390 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the transaction of new orders in the northern market is still good. Today, manufacturers 'quotations continue to increase slightly, with an increase in transactions and a firm mentality. In terms of the market, the market transaction activity is regional. Trading in the northern market is hot, and offers continue to increase, driving the trading atmosphere in the external market to rise simultaneously. The bullish sentiment of traders is high and they are optimistic about the future outlook. Market prices are firm and consolidated, and the market continues to be strong and volatile. On the supply side, the industry's Nissan continues to increase slowly, equipment recovery is slow, and companies continue to remove warehouses, driving the market to rise steadily. On the demand side, with the arrival of the corn planting solar term, the agricultural market has ushered in a new round of busy farming periods. Downstream topdressing and fertilizer preparation have started, and the follow-up situation is better.

On the whole, the current urea market demand has followed up well, most obviously in the northern region, which has simultaneously driven price increases in other peripheral areas. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to increase in the short term.