PVC: Futures prices are low and sideways, and the Bollinger Band is rapidly narrowing. New market is coming, and spot prices fall slightly in a narrow range.

PVC futures analysis: V2409 contract opening price: 6299, highest price: 6340, lowest price: 6250, position: 850105, settlement price: 6296, yesterday settlement: 6411, down: 115,daily trading volume: 1536565 lots, precipitated capital: 3.763 billion, capital outflow: 64.17 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market: & nbsp; the mainstream transaction price in China's PVC market is arranged in a narrow range, and the market price is mainly adjusted slightly. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 50 yuan / ton in North China, 70 yuan / ton in East China, 90 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 20-30 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices are still sporadic make-up decline phenomenon, the downward adjustment in the range of 30-50 yuan / ton, including the simultaneous downward price of remote storage. The futures price continues to fluctuate at a relatively low level, and the price offered by traders in the spot market has changed little compared with yesterday, and most of them and their own shipments have been adjusted slightly. The advantage of the basis difference after the operation of the low price is relatively obvious, but the recent adjustment of the basis offer in various regions is not large. It still maintains the early stage, including 09 contracts in East China (300-350-400) and 09 contracts in South China-(250-300). 09 contract in the North-(600-650), 09 in the Southwest-(400-450). Today's spot transaction is relatively insipid, the actual single transaction is mainly at a low price, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of nbsp;PVC2409 contract is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the fluctuation range of futures price is relatively narrow. After the start of morning trading, the futures price is still fluctuating on the basis of night trading, and the overall direction of volatility in the afternoon is unknown. 2409 contracts fluctuate from 6250 to 6340 throughout the day, with a spread of 90909 contracts reducing positions by 19587 lots, with positions so far of 19587 lots, 2501 contracts closing at 6483, and positions of 121209 hands.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures: & nbsp The futures price of PVC2409 contract runs low and narrow range, first of all, the fluctuation range of futures price narrows, the low point of futures price goes down further yesterday, and the low point approaches the lower track position and the 20th line of MA combination line, the technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of Bollinger belt (13,13,2) narrows rapidly, the distance between the three rails shrinks rapidly, and the operation of futures prices rises and falls sharply in the near future. But the narrowing of the market is basically the beginning of a new round of market, the daily level of MACD line and KD line show a dead fork trend. Judging from the current time node, we believe that even if the market gives up the previous gains, expectations still exist, so we are cautiously bearish, and the operation of futures prices in the short term will continue to observe the performance in the range of 6250-6500.

Spot aspect: At present, there are not many supply and demand variables in nbsp;, and the start-up load of PVC devices in the supply port has not been significantly improved. Maintenance enterprises plan to overhaul, and the high price on the demand side is relatively obvious, especially terminal demand, but the flow of goods between traders is increasing. In the case of the recent volatile market, the insufficient trend provided by the fundamentals, the stimulus impact of the multi-source policy ports of the two cities, the downside of the two days of the week and the low sideways, we still think that we cannot judge the weakening of the market. From the current time point and late expectations, there are still upward factors in the third quarter. Oil prices fell more than $2 in the outer disk, hitting their lowest level since February as OPEC's decision to extend production cuts was seen as a sign that members were eager to export more crude as investors worried about the demand outlook. On the whole, it will be sorted out within a narrow range in the short term or within the scope of the downward adjustment.