Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market fluctuates upward. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is between 2,300 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is between 2,200 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,350 - 2,500 yuan/ton; the supply of soda ash market is basically stable, and enterprises undergoing early maintenance have resumed production. At the same time, some companies have stopped for maintenance, and the market operating rate fluctuates; Downstream demand remained stable, but market purchasing sentiment was still poor, and most of them remained in need of maintenance, and the soda ash market as a whole remained stable.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on June 3, was 2314 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2200 yuan/ton, an increase of-5.58% within the day. The highest intraday session was 2328 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2195 yuan/ton, with a total position of 703655 lots, a month-on-month period of-42293 lots.
Soda ash futures prices weakened sharply today, more due to the overall market atmosphere falling, funds leaving the market as a safe haven. In the short term, soda ash prices lack upward drive, existing maintenance plans at the supply side are basically implemented, and soda ash losses may recover in June. However, the actual losses in the subsequent maintenance season cannot be determined, and demand growth is also expected. Short-term soda ash prices have been adjusted back with the market environment, and the medium-term trend has not yet reversed. Although the industrial fundamentals show signs of weakening, short-term spot price support still exists. Before new market drivers emerge, we need to beware of soda ash after the capital sentiment continues to weaken. The sharp pullback caused a large outflow of midstream inventory to impact the market, forming further negative feedback resonance.
market outlook
The start of the soda ash market fluctuated within a narrow range, and enterprises began to coexist with maintenance and restoration; downstream demand remained basically stable. At the beginning of the month, most downstream enterprises continued to need procurement, and the market had no mood to stock up. Supply and demand in the soda ash market were basically balanced, and prices in some regions may be adjusted. Mainstream prices have temporarily stabilized.
