Daily review of urea: The recovery of equipment supply is slow and the appropriate amount of agricultural needs is being followed up (June 3)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 3 was 2,394.82, unchanged from last Friday and up 12.17% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2151, the highest price is 2154, the lowest price is 2109, the settlement price is 2130, and the closing price is 2118. The closing price is 60% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.75% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2109-2154; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 252; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 16388 lots today, and so far, it has held 208725 lots.

Urea futures prices fell sharply today, mainly due to the large outflow of funds after the overall commodity market atmosphere weakened. There is still strong support for urea's own fundamentals, but subsequent expectations will weaken, and the market will temporarily lack substantial driving. In the short term, it may still fluctuate mainly with the overall market environment. However, we need to guard against negative feedback on the spot market after the market weakens.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices were generally stable, corporate quotations were firm, and some were slightly adjusted, and prices were mixed.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,330 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,360 - 2,410 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,330 - 2,470 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,320 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,210 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,440 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,390 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to process pending orders, and inventories remain low. Under the tight spot supply and support of pending orders, offers are relatively firm. Manufacturers have little sales pressure. They ship steadily, and a small amount of orders are controlled. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the market is mixed. Under the current tight spot supply situation, the market is deadlocked and running. In terms of supply, equipment failures have occurred frequently in recent days and there have been many temporary stops. Nissan has improved slowly than expected and continues to operate at a low level. Supply remains tight. On the demand side, the demand for fertilizer preparation in some agricultural areas has emerged, and agricultural demand has been followed up in an appropriate manner in stages, and agricultural demand has limited support for the market; industrial downstream compound fertilizer factories have gradually entered the final stage, and their willingness to purchase raw materials has declined, maintaining just need to purchase, and the mentality is biased towards caution.

On the whole, the current urea market is firm and stable under the influence of a slow recovery of supply. It is expected that urea prices will stabilize and move slightly in a short period of time, and the range will be sorted out.