PVC: The futures price plunged deeply and corrected back, the fluctuation range expanded and significantly lightened positions, and the spot market fell

PVC futures analysis: June 3 V2409 contract opening price: 6590, highest price: 6598, lowest price: 6275, position: 869692, settlement price: 6411, yesterday settlement: 6539, down: 128,daily trading volume: 2628522 lots, precipitated capital: 3.827 billion, capital outflow: 557 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:   mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market have fallen sharply, and the spot market has weakened significantly. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 80-100 yuan / ton in North China, 100-110 yuan / ton in East China, 100 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 80 yuan / ton in Central China and 50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises began to decline, but the reduction was basically 50-80-100 yuan / ton, but when the futures price declined obviously, there were not many contracts signed in the first generation, and there were still some high-priced goods in the hands of merchants. After the futures price goes down, the spot market price offer goes down with it, and part of the intraday price is lowered twice, and the decline is larger this time. After the futures price goes down, the spot price advantage appears, including 09 contracts in East China (300-350-400), 09 contracts in South China-(250-300), 09 contracts in North China-(600-650), 09 contracts in Southwest China-(400-450). The price decline of the two cities, point price transactions have increased, the basis offer price advantage is more obvious, the actual single transaction is mainly at a low price, downstream enterprises mainly replenish goods on bargain.

Futures point of view:  PVC2409 contract night futures prices began to decline at the beginning of trading, the opening is the highest price, the overall night market decline is obvious. Futures prices weakened further after the start of early trading on Monday, with no rebound to speak of, continuing to run low in the afternoon and falling below the 6300 mark. 2409 contracts range from 6275 to 6598 throughout the day, with a spread of 323,09.09 contracts reducing positions by 84011 lots, with positions so far of 869692 lots, 2501 contracts closing at 6445, and positions of 118085 hands.

PVC Future Forecast:

In terms of futures: & the operation of nbsp;PVC2409 contract futures shows a sharp downward trend, with a spread of 323 points between highs and lows, and a significant expansion of the volatility range. The futures price fell sharply below the middle track from the upper track position. And the disk showed a significant reduction trend, in which long and short 28.1% vs. empty 26.0%. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13,13,2) narrows, the upper rail turns downward obviously, the KD line at the daily line level tends to be dead and the distance between the two lines of the MACD line at the daily line level is shortened. The sharp decline of the futures price gives back more gains in the early period, and the weakness of the two markets is relatively obvious. In the short term, the operation of the futures price or test the position below the range, observe the performance of the range 6250-6500.

Spot aspect: & the overall commodity mood in nbsp; began to weaken at the beginning of the week and closed at midday. Most of the main Chinese futures contracts fell, with manganese silicon and ferrosilicon falling by 8%, soda ash by more than 5%, industrial silicon by more than 4%, alumina, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), Shanghai silver, methanol and apple by more than 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), jujube, pulp, urea and lithium carbonate by more than 2%. At present, there are no obvious variable factors in the fundamentals of PVC, the upstream production enterprises' maintenance is carried out step by step, the calcium carbide port weakens slightly, the demand side continues to maintain rigid demand, and after today's futures price goes down, low orders and low prices exist. The relatively weak mood has dampened the confidence of the overall industrial chain, but from the current time node, there are still certain expectations for commodities, so the overall future of PVC and the two cities should not be overly bearish. In the short term, PVC spot market prices still have certain expectations, but beware of low repeated pullbacks.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis: