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PVC futures analysis: may 31 V2409 contract opening price: 6515, highest price: 6584, lowest price: 6472, position: 953703, settlement price: 6539, yesterday settlement: 6519, up: 20, daily trading volume: 2081881 lots, precipitated capital: 4.383 billion, capital inflow: 191 million.
PVC spot market: & nbsp; the mainstream transaction price in China's PVC market is mainly adjusted slightly, with small changes in some areas. Compared with the valuation, the high end of North China fell by 10 yuan / ton, the high end of East China rose by 20 yuan / ton, South China was stable, the low end of Northeast China rose by 100 yuan / ton, the high end of Central China fell by 20 yuan / ton, and the southwest region was stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices are still partially reduced, ranging from 20 to 50 yuan / ton, some enterprises stable prices wait and see, but coincide with Friday generation contract signing is wrong, businesses have a certain wait-and-see mood. The strong operation of futures rose slightly, and the price offer of traders in various regions was not adjusted correctly, because the afternoon futures weakened after the spot price rose yesterday, and the spot market did not go down. therefore, although the spot price is strong today, the spot market still does not adjust prices much, and the basis offer has little advantage, including 09 contracts in East China-(300-350-380) and 09 contracts in South China-(250-300). 09 contract in the North-(600-650), 09 in the Southwest-(400-450). On the whole, the spot market is slightly light today.
From a futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp;PVC2409 contract opened higher and reached a peak of 6584. After the start of morning trading, futures prices fell slightly, and the afternoon V-shaped trend rose and continued to rise in late trading. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 6472-6584 throughout the day, with a spread of 1125.09 contracts with an increase of 34204 positions, with 953703 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6719 and 127043 positions.
PVC Future Forecast:
In terms of futures: & nbsp;PVC2409 contract futures are relatively active, with a total turnover of 2081881 lots in 2409 individual contracts. At present, PVC positions are at a high level. Today, the position is increased by more than 34000 hands, and in terms of transaction, the opening is 24.4% more than the short opening of 26.0%, which is slightly better, but the futures price rose relatively significantly in late trading. The technical level shows that the three rail openings of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) are still upward, but the upper rail opening means to turn, and the distance between the three tracks has narrowed in the recent high horizontal finishing process. At the daily level, the KD line crosses the two lines, while the MACD line tends to expand. The operation of the current futures price will continue to observe the performance of the high range of 6400-6700 in the short term.
Spot aspect: & nbsp;, judging from the overall commodity trend, closed at midday, most of the main Chinese futures contracts fell, coke and soda ash fell nearly 4%, manganese silicon, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), No. 20 glue (NR) fell nearly 3%, coking coal, glass, alumina, cotton, SC crude oil and fuel fell more than 2%. However, the PVC of the plasticizing plate shows an upward trend, and the futures price is running on the strong side. PVC fundamentals calcium carbide prices slightly downward, but the recent PVC production enterprises began to repair, supply has been reduced, the demand side in the face of high prices still maintain rigid demand, but the futures price down after the point price order has been closed, and the current high range of hedges under the supply of goods to transfer, the recent PVC trading to remove the rigid demand part, the deal is OK. In the outer disk, prices in the international crude oil futures market fell as the US economic slowdown weakened oil demand, which was not boosted by a sharp drop in US crude oil inventories last week and failed to benefit from expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. On the whole, the spot price of PVC will continue to be high in the short term.
