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Methanol: Port spot prices are running high and China's prices are weak and difficult to change

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May 29, 2024, 5:09 PM

On May 29th, the methanol market price index was 2245.71, down 7.46 from yesterday, down 0.33% from the previous month.


Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 28:

China's CFR ranges from US $308 to US $315 per ton, down US $2 per ton.
Us FOB 98-99 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 365.5-US $366.5 / ton, Ping

European FOB 304.5-305.5 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2330-2350 (- 20), North Route: 2160-2200 (- 10), Lunan: 2470-2500 (- 30), Henan: 2420-2440 (0), Shanxi: 2350-2430 (0), Port: 27102760 (5)

Freight:

Northern route-260-320 of northern Shandong (0Uniqure 10), northern route-southern Shandong 280-310 (0amp 0), southern route-northern Shandong 260-290 (10max 0), Guanzhong-southwestern Shandong 160-230 (0gammer 10)

 

Spot market: today, the Chinese methanol market continues to run weakly, the futures market fluctuates at a high level, the price of the port spot market still fluctuates at a high level under the influence of tight spot circulation, and the spot basis trend is strong under the support of low warehouses. however, the weakness of the Chinese market is difficult to change, most of the downstream operators are not enthusiastic about entering the market under the influence of the mood of buying up or falling, and the shipments of manufacturers in the main producing areas are not good. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas fell narrowly, with the quotation on the south line around 2160 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than yesterday, and the price on the north line around 2120-2160 yuan / ton, down by 10 yuan / ton at the low end. At present, the performance of downstream market demand is poor, the shipments of manufacturers in the region are poor, and some manufacturers' inventory has increased slightly, so it is difficult to have obvious support for regional market prices in the short term. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fluctuated down, with southern Shandong 2440-2450 yuan / ton, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, and northern Shandong 2440-2470 yuan / ton. at present, the follow-up of downstream market demand is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere under rigid demand replenishment is poor. The market quotation in North China is running stably for the time being. Hebei quoted price 2360-2380 yuan / ton today, maintaining yesterday, the downstream demand for methanol in the region is weak and difficult to change, and the downstream manufacturers have a strong sentiment of price reduction, and the market transaction price continues to fall; Shanxi quotes 2300-2350 yuan / ton today, the market terminal demand is weak, the transaction speed of new orders slows down, and the market trading atmosphere is poor.

Port market: methanol futures range fluctuated today. Near-end rigid demand replenishment, basis stabilized. Far month arbitrage to receive goods mainly, the basis is weaker. The price difference between far and near months has widened and transactions have been active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2770, basis 09: 145 × 5 transaction: 2765-2775, base difference 09: 135Dynamo 160 position 6: 2680-2695, base difference 09: 57Universe 60 position 6: 2675-2680, base difference 09: 52, transaction 6: 2655-2675, base difference 09: 37Then 43th, basis: 2655-2660, basis: 090.25.

Area

2024/5/29

2024/5/28

Rise and fall

The whole country

2245.71

2253.17

-7.46

Northwest

2120-2340

2130-2340

-10/0

North China

2300-2380

2300-2410

0/-30

East China

2755-2830

2755-2830

0/0

South China

2670-2750

2680-2750

-10/0

Southwest

2330-2560

2330-2650

0/-90

Northeast China

2460-2600

2530-2630

-70/-30

Shandong

2440-2550

2440-2600

0/-50

Central China

2390-2720

2390-2730

0/-10

 

Forecast in the future: in the near future, the trend of the methanol market is obviously divided. Under the influence of the obvious contradiction between supply and demand, the market price in the Chinese market continues to operate weakly, the main downstream market starts to maintain the middle and low level, and the traditional downstream market demand is difficult to improve obviously. under the influence of bearish sentiment, the bearish sentiment of the operators in the market is more obvious, the lower reaches and traders mainly choose low rigid demand, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the main producing areas increases. In the later stage, the possibility of profit concession can not be ruled out. The quotation of the port spot market remains high. At present, the inventory pressure in the port regional market is still small, and the spot basis continues to operate at a high level, supporting the high price operation in the port region to a certain extent. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will continue to differentiate, the methanol market price in China will continue to be weak, and the port spot quotation will fluctuate at a high level, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.

 

Recent operation of the plant

Name of production enterprise

Annual capacity; ten thousand tons

Raw material

Starting date of maintenance

Maintenance end date

Operation of the device

Shaanxi Runzhong

60

Coal

2024/5/20

2024/7/20

Parking maintenance

Inner Mongolia black cat

30

Coke oven gas

2024/5/16

To be determined

Parking maintenance

Prolong the second phase of Yueneng

180

Coal

2024/5/9

2024/6/9

Parking maintenance

Inner Mongolia Rongxin Phase I

90

Coal

2024/5/6

2024/5/21

Returned to normal operation

Shenhua Baotou

230

Coal

2024/4/15

2024/5/19

Returned to normal operation

Datang Duolun

168

Coal

2024/5/10

2024/6/5

Parking maintenance for 25 days

Inner Mongolia Yigao

30

Coal

2024/4/19

2024/5/24

Returned to normal operation

Northwest energy

30

Coal

2023/10/8

2024 / May

Stop production and overhaul

Xinjiang new industry

50

Coal

2024/5/10

2024/5/28

Parking maintenance

Gansu Huating

60

Coal

2024/5/26

To be determined

Parking maintenance

Qinghai Salt Lake

133

Coal

2024/5/19

To be determined

Methanol and olefins are stopped for maintenance.

Shandong Yanzhou Mining Guohong

64.5

Coal

2024/5/22

To be determined

Reduced to double furnace operation

Guangxi Huayi

180

Coal

2024/5/15

2024/5/22

A set of equipment is being stopped for overhaul and is being restored one after another.

Jiangyou Wanli

15

Natural gas

2023/12/1

2024 / May

Parking maintenance

Shanxi coking

35

Coke oven gas

2024/5/10

2024 / early June

A set of devices for parking and maintenance

Anhui Linyi Coking

40

Coke oven gas

2024/5/6

2024/6/6

The two sets of devices are overhauled in turn