Daily Review of Urea: Demand just needs a small amount of follow-up, market conditions are stabilizing (May 28)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 28 was 2,392.59, an increase of 0.91 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 14.07%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2205, the highest price is 2217, the lowest price is 2182, the settlement price is 2200, and the closing price is 2186. The closing price is 3 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.14% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2182-2217; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 194; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 4669 lots today, and so far, the position is 234795 lots.

Today, urea futures prices generally remained within a narrow range of fluctuations. Due to the weakening of the overall commodity market environment, funds mainly left the market. In the short term, the market fundamentals have not yet reversed, and there is still support for the bottom of the futures price. However, the expected future price of the fundamentals will weaken and the upper regulatory pressure will be strong, and the market environment will maintain a narrow range. Shock waiting to be driven mainly.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have stabilized and increased slightly, and the market has stabilized. Companies have adjusted their prices cautiously and are mostly calm and wait-and-see.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,300 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,360 - 2,410 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,340 - 2,470 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,320 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,220 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,450 - 2,500 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,390 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,750 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers are about to reduce their sales and began to reduce prices and accept orders this week. After the offer fell slightly, new orders were followed up one after another. Today, the company's quotations were stable and slightly increased, and the overall situation was stable. In terms of the market, appropriate transactions of low-priced goods in the market began this week, and new orders continued to increase. However, the overall follow-up number was limited compared with the previous period, and the market situation was at a high level and was deadlocked. In terms of supply, early maintenance equipment has been restored one after another, and Nissan is slowly improving. The supply shortage needs to be alleviated. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in a gap period, with low willingness to replenish goods, and a cautious mentality; the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the downstream of industry continues to remain high. Currently, high-nitrogen fertilizer production is approaching the end period, and follow-up on purchasing raw materials has been reduced, and more maintenance needs have been maintained. The follow-up intensity has dropped slightly.

On the whole, there is still a certain amount of demand in the urea market that needs to be replenished. The fundamentals continue to be positive. The market support is still strong in the short term. It is expected that urea prices will stabilize and fluctuate slightly in the short term.