Analysis of soda ash market
Today, prices in some areas of China's soda ash market have increased, with an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; The price of light soda ash in South China is 2,400 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton; some equipment of soda ash enterprises are still under maintenance, and the market supply is shrinking; At the end of the month, the market demand for stocking increased slightly, and the shipment situation of soda factories was relatively good. Some orders were in hand, but manufacturers 'inventories remained declining. Demand in the downstream market was stable, and the overall soda ash market was operating well.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on May 27, was 2413 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2442 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% within the day. The intraday high was 2471 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2393 yuan/ton, with a total position of 817878 lots, a month-on-month +37342 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fell slightly after surging high, and the overall price center of gravity still shifted upwards. Spot market prices rose again this week, and surged sharply in early trading. However, due to the cooling of macro sentiment in the early stage, the market's gains narrowed. In the short term, the upward drive of soda ash prices has slowed down, the existing maintenance plans at the supply side have been basically implemented, and the amount of soda ash losses may recover next month. The mood of replenishing warehouses in the middle and lower reaches has not yet improved significantly, and the current resonance intensity is slowing down. However, the actual losses in the mid-term maintenance season cannot be determined, demand growth expectations also exist, and the short-term soda ash price may temporarily fluctuate, but there is no reason to reverse the medium-term trend.
market outlook
Due to the influence of maintenance companies, the soda ash market has been under-staffed, and soda ash supply has fluctuated within a narrow range this week; downstream demand has basically remained stable. Coupled with the market demand for storage and replenishment at the end of the month, the shipment of low-cost soda ash sources is relatively good. In the short term, the soda ash market is operating well, and market prices are expected to fluctuate upwards.
