PVC: Futures prices narrowed and adjusted back in a narrow range, the trend of the plasticized sector diverged, and the spot weakened slightly

May 27, 2024, 4:58 PM

PVC futures analysis: may 27th V2409 contract opening price: 6485, highest price: 6534, lowest price: 6445, position: 977291, settlement price: 6489, yesterday settlement: 6552, down: 63, daily trading volume: 1923805 lots, precipitated capital: 4.419 billion, capital inflow: 61 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	It's May 24th	May 27th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6030-6090	5980-6040	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
East China	6110-6230	6050-6170	-60/-60	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6080-6260	6050-6210	-30/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5850-5950	5800-5900	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6000-6090	5950-6040	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5850-5930	5850-5900	0/-30	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices a small correction, market prices did not see more stimulus at the beginning of the week. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 50 yuan / ton in North China, 60 yuan / ton in East China, 30-5 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 50 yuan / ton in Central China and 30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price sporadic reduction of 50-70 yuan / ton, most enterprises price stability wait and see, individual enterprises in order to stimulate shipments slightly reduced. The futures concussion finishing high point was weaker than last Friday, the spot market trader's price offer decreased compared with the previous period, and the high-price supply was difficult to close the transaction, the transaction range of the same brand supply in the spot market was expanded, and there were some low-price maturing sources. Today, there are basis offers in the spot market, including 09 contracts in East China (300-350-380), 09 contracts in South China-(250-300), 09 contracts in North China-(600-650), and 09 contracts in Southwest China-(400-450). On the whole, the downstream purchasing intention is still on the low side, and most of them continue to wait and see.

From a futures point of view: & the price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract rose slightly at the start of the night trading on Friday, but did not rise enough and then went down. After the start of early trading on Monday, the futures price still rose slightly and then fell slightly, and the afternoon price fluctuated in a small range. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 6445-6534 throughout the day, with a spread of 89. 09 contracts with an increase of 15873 positions, with 977291 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6616 and 120304 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The operation of the PVC2409 contract futures price is mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the market continues to show a trend of increasing positions. in terms of transactions, the opening is 24.9% higher than the short opening 23.6%, which still shows a certain long sentiment, and the short level is increased by 25.4% compared with 23.5%. On the one hand, the short order part leaves the market after the futures price goes down, on the other hand, there is still a certain number of orders entering the market after the futures price goes down. Therefore, from the current trading trend, there is still a strong basis for the operation of futures prices. However, in today's overall plasticizing plate, the performance of PVC is relatively weaker than that of polyolefin products, and the price difference between 3Ps has widened. Overall, in the short term, the operation of PVC futures will continue to observe the performance in the range of 6400-6600.

Spot: in the plasticizing plate, today's PVC performance is weak, making the price difference between PVC- polyolefins widening again. However, at present, the operation of futures prices is still at a high level, and there are no obvious negative factors in the two cities, so a certain pullback can be treated rationally. From the perspective of supply and demand in the spot market, some PVC production enterprises began to complete maintenance in accordance with the maintenance plan, the supply decreased correspondingly, the high price suppressed part of the downstream demand, and the downstream products enterprises held a wait-and-see mentality. However, from the current time point of view, whether it is the overall commodity sentiment or overall volatility expectations, there is still a certain preference performance in the third quarter. In the outer disk, international oil prices ended four consecutive declines and closed higher, but fell weekly on fears that strong US economic data would keep interest rates high for a long time, thereby curbing fuel demand. On the whole, in the short term, the PVC spot market is mainly high and narrow.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	It's May 24th	May 27th	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	6475	6495	20
	Average spot price in East China	6170	6110	-60
	Average spot price in South China	6170	6130	-40
	PVC2409 basis difference	-305	-385	-80
	V2501 collection	6633	6616	-17
	V2409-2501 close	-158	-121	37
	PP2409 collection	7755	7832	77
	Plastic L2409	8557	8669	112
	V--PP basis difference	-1280	-1337	-57
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2082	-2174	-92

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 47.64, or 0.782%, to 6042.54 on May 27th. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6332.39, down 56.39, or 0.883%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 289.85.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	Yesterday's warehouse order quantity	Today's warehouse order volume	Increase or decrease
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	4,301	4,302	1
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	2,053	2,053	0
	The central reserve is near the port	965	966	1
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,043	1,043	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	4,092	4,092	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,353	1,353	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	1,273	1,273	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	1,466	1,466	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,189	3,189	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,699	1,699	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	891	891	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,890	5,890	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,402	15,402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	3,490	4,140	650
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	2,097	2,097	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,499	5,499	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,014	1,014	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	631	631	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	3,060	3,060	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	300	300	0
PVC subtotal		57,259	57,910	651
Total		57,259	57,910	651

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

Dalian Commodity Exchange Daily turnover position ranking (Table 1) contract Code: v2409 Enquiry date: 20240527
Ranking	Member abbreviation	Trading volume	Increase or decrease
1	Citic Futures (valet)	374,452	-136,161
2	Guotai Junan (valet)	363,510	-228,319
3	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	315,015	-245,346
4	Huawen Futures (valet)	291,542	-289,556
5	League of Nations Futures (valet)	118,060	-63,127
6	Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet)	114,839	-157,084
7	Galaxy Futures (valet)	108,163	-105,811
8	Haitong Futures (valet)	101,413	-147,623
9	Guangfa Futures (valet)	98,209	-79,561
10	Middle period of founder (valet)	85,568	-90,768
11	Huatai Futures (valet)	80,186	-72,835
12	Shenyin Wanguo (valet)	78,176	-54,810
13	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	75,033	-103,654
14	Soochow Futures (valet)	72,716	-138,850
15	Sino-Thai Futures (valet)	62,007	-26,261
16	Oriental Wealth (valet)	55,500	-53,162
17	Huaxi Futures (valet)	46,870	-58,791
18	Bohai Futures (valet)	44,693	-72,393
19	Zhonghui Futures (valet)	44,358	-67,366
20	Hua'an Futures (valet)	43,768	-65,838
Total		2,574,078	-2,257,316

Dalian Commodity Exchange Daily transaction position ranking (Table 2) contract Code: v2409 Enquiry date: 20240527
Ranking	Member abbreviation	Hold the purchase order quantity	Increase or decrease	Ranking	Member abbreviation	Hold sales order quantity	Increase or decrease
1	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	122,467	3,295	1	Guotai Junan (valet)	125,465	10,137
2	Guotai Junan (valet)	40,787	-12,661	2	Yongan Futures (valet)	68,834	-405
3	Citic Futures (valet)	31,882	1,438	3	Citic Futures (valet)	53,997	6,476
4	Huatai Futures (valet)	28,267	1,502	4	Galaxy Futures (valet)	50,231	371
5	Galaxy Futures (valet)	25,970	-2,216	5	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	41,404	1,149
6	Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet)	25,262	1,965	6	Shenyin Wanguo (valet)	36,145	-1,702
7	Yongan Futures (valet)	24,895	2,975	7	Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet)	35,401	499
8	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	24,629	-2,086	8	Guotou Anxin (valet)	26,977	-1,730
9	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	22,915	-86	9	Huatai Futures (valet)	26,620	-146
10	Middle period of founder (valet)	22,284	1,827	10	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	22,202	-2,001
11	Zhonghui Futures (valet)	19,256	1,583	11	ITC Futures (valet)	18,528	229
12	Haitong Futures (valet)	18,423	-2,053	12	Guangfa Futures (valet)	17,946	-1,761
13	Cofco Futures (valet)	18,035	1,710	13	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	17,264	-1,558
14	Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet)	17,603	42	14	Medium-sized products (valet)	16,985	435
15	Hongyuan Futures (valet)	17,153	1,022	15	Everbright Futures (valet)	16,514	-196
16	Sino-Thai Futures (valet)	16,609	1,903	16	Middle period of founder (valet)	16,449	2,611
17	Hua'an Futures (valet)	15,167	364	17	South China Futures (valet)	16,267	-1,140
18	Guangfa Futures (valet)	14,223	-1,222	18	CICC Wealth (valet)	15,278	2,773
19	Soochow Futures (valet)	13,624	1,081	19	Donghai Futures (valet)	13,953	1,188
20	South China Futures (valet)	13,201	-1,239	20	Haitong Futures (valet)	13,611	7,890
Total		532,652	-856	Total		650,071	23,119