[Soda ash]5.23 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market is operating in shock

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the market price of soda ash in China has temporarily stabilized. As of now, the price of soda ash in South China is between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,450 - 2,500 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is between 2,150 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,250 - 2,400 yuan/ton; individual soda factories have been overhauled, and market supply has declined. Companies have mainly delivered orders on hand, and manufacturers 'inventories have remained declining; Downstream demand is stable, companies just need to purchase, the market is waiting and seeing, and the soda ash market may maintain stability.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on May 23, was 2407 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2376 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.49% within the day. The highest intraday session was 2423 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2338 yuan/ton, with a total position of 776689 lots, a month-on-month period of-20791 lots.

Today's soda ash futures prices were mainly adjusted to a weak side, mainly due to factors such as cooling overseas interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, funds have retreated from the market. The shrinking supply of soda ash and the growth of demand are existing facts. The relationship between supply and demand has been unbalanced in stages, and the soda ash market can still be viewed strongly in the short term. The main observation point at present is how the premium in futures prices continues to drive the evolution of speculative demand in the midstream. As the story of positive feedback from the spot market continues, whether downstream purchasing sentiment improves, thus further forming a resonance situation. However, most of the existing announced maintenance plans on the supply side have been fulfilled. After the subsequent maintenance companies recover, the impact of supply disturbances may weaken marginally. It is necessary to observe whether new supply disturbances will emerge in the future and affect the market and downstream mentality.

market outlook

Due to the impact of maintenance companies, the soda ash market is understaffed; downstream demand has remained basically stable, but prices have remained volatile, and companies have limited purchasing enthusiasm. Futures prices rose this week, which has boosted the spot market. In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to continue to fluctuate.