Urea Daily Review: New market orders follow up and slow down, corporate quotations remain firm and stable (May 23)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 23 was 2,397.59, a decrease of 3.86 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.16% and a year-on-year increase of 9.65%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 2178, the highest price is 2194, the lowest price is 2155, the settlement price is 2176, and the closing price is 35 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.58% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2155-2194; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 205; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 3995 lots today, and so far, the position is 240688 lots.

Today, urea futures prices mainly fluctuate with the weak market environment. Today, the overall commodity market environment is weak, with macro capital profit outflows dominated. However, for the urea market, the increase in the previous period is relatively limited, and there is also little room for the downside to cover. Currently, urea itself temporarily lacks new drivers, and fundamental support still exists. However, there is a marginal weakening phenomenon, and in the short term, it may remain weak and volatile.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices stabilized and fell slightly. The follow-up of new orders slowed down. Supported by companies and low inventories, the quotation was firm for a short time.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,300 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,370 - 2,420 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,340 - 2,470 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,320 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,240 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,460 - 2,500 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,390 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,750 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the current orders from manufacturers are gradually decreasing, and the order acquisition situation is average. There is still support for pending orders. Some continue to control the receipt of orders. Quotes remain firm and prices are stable. The quotations of individual companies are slightly lowered today. In terms of the market, the transaction of new orders in the market has slowed down, and trading enthusiasm has cooled down compared with the previous period. The market has been deadlocked at a high level and has a narrow range of shocks. The wait-and-see attitude of operators has intensified and their mentality has become cautious. On the supply side, the company's inventory continues to decrease, maintenance equipment has not been restored yet, and individual equipment has suddenly failed and stopped for a short time. Nissan has improved slowly than expected, and supply is still gradually recovering. On the demand side, agriculture is just following up, but the pace of procurement follow-up has slowed down; industrial compound fertilizer factories have a cautious purchasing mentality, and the sentiment of chasing high has dropped. Overall demand support has weakened, and the push has slowed down.

On the whole, there is still support for pending orders in the urea market, and manufacturers 'offers continue to be firm. However, the downstream sentiment of high-priced purchases has weakened, and new orders have slowed down. It is expected that urea prices will continue to be stable and slow in the short term, with limited room for fluctuations.