Methanol: Futures fluctuated and fell back, and the spot market turnover was poor

On May 21, the methanol market price index was 2335.62, down 27.81 from yesterday, and 1.18% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 20:

China CFR 316-320USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 92-93 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 369-US $370 / ton, Ping

European FOB 300.75-301.75 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2370 (0), North Route: 2230-2270 (- 90), Lunan: 2550-2560 (- 30), Henan: 2450-2480 (- 60), Shanxi: 2380-2480 (0), Port: 2780-2480 (0)

Freight:

North-Shandong 200-260 (0ax 0), north-south Shandong 280-310 (0max 0), south-north Shandong 280-310 (0max 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 220-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are arranged in a narrow range, the futures market is high, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is poor, most Chinese manufacturers fail to bid, the wait-and-see mood of terminal downstream operators is obvious, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is limited. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been lowered along with it, and the quotation on the southern line revolves around 2310 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the quotation on the northern line revolves around 2230-2270 yuan / ton, and the transaction situation of manufacturers in the region is poor. Shenmu methanol starting price quoted today to 2240 yuan / ton 1100 tons, the rest failed to auction; Rongxin 2280 yuan / ton, the quantity of 12000 tons, all failed auction; Yulin Yanzhou Mining 2240 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, the quantity of 5000 tons, all failed auction. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have dropped, with 2550-2560 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2480-2530 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Some downstream operators hold certain resistance to the current high prices, and the trading atmosphere in the market is not good. The market quotation in North China is running stably for the time being. Hebei quotation is 2510-2520 yuan / ton today. The downstream market demand performance is general, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is general. Shanxi quotes 2380-2480 yuan / ton today, and the downstream manufacturers are more cautious in following up. Rigid demand replenishment is the main, the overall market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated downwards today. Early morning near-end rigid demand procurement, arbitrage shipments, the basis is strong, the long-term is relatively stable; afternoon shipments increase, the basis is weak across the board, the monthly difference has narrowed slightly. Small volume of overall transactions throughout the day. Taicang main Port transaction Price: spot order: 2920-2970 transaction 5 deal: 2780-2835, basis difference 09x145 Universe 170Equity 6 transaction: 2735-2780, basis difference 09945Universe 115Tracer 6 transaction: 2755-2770, basis difference 09x85exp 100Equity 6th transaction: 2685-2735, basis difference 0960swap 75fie7 transaction: 2665-2700,0940alphabet 45

Future forecast: with the continuous increase of methanol prices in the early stage, the profits of the downstream industry have been further compressed, some of the olefin units in the field have been stopped, and some of the traditional downstream is about to enter the off-season of consumption, and the demand side is limited to methanol support. at present, although the Changwu plant is stopped and overhauled, but Rongxin Phase I is restarting, coupled with the increase of some manufacturers in the region, the overall supply performance of the Chinese market is more abundant. Under the influence of the contradiction between supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term Chinese market price is weak, but the port spot quotation operates at a high level under the influence of tight spot circulation, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price and the operation of the plant in the field.