PVC: Futures gave up some of the gains, both long and short sides left the market, and the spot was adjusted back.

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May 21, 2024, 4:54 PM

PVC futures analysis: may 21 V2409 contract opening price: 6368, highest price: 6407, lowest price: 6246, position: 922745, settlement price: 6331, yesterday settlement: 6354, down: 23, daily trading volume: 1588408 lots, precipitated capital: 4.083 billion, capital outflow: 201 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	May 20th	May 21	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5830-5930	5810-5860	-20/-70	Send to cash remittance
East China	5980-6050	5880-6000	-100/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6000-6100	5930-6050	-70/-50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5700-5850	5700-5850	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5850-5910	5850-5910	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5750-5850	5730-5800	-20/-50	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell slightly, giving up some of the gains. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20-70 yuan / ton in North China, 50-100 yuan / ton in East China, 50-70 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, stable in Central China, and 20-50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprise factory price part of the reduction of 50-80-100 yuan / ton, mainly to active shipments, coinciding with the contract on Tuesday to the basic volume, there is no obvious volume signing. Futures slightly down to give up some of the gains, the spot market merchants offer a small decline, some real single prices have room for negotiation, with the downward price, the basis offer advantage, and the basis slightly expanded, including East China basis offer 09 contract-(300-350-400), South China 09 contract-(250-300), North 09 contract-(600-650), Southwest 09 contract-(400-450). Although the two quotations coexist, but the downstream procurement intention is still low, most continue to wait and see, the overall spot trading atmosphere is light.

From the perspective of futures: & the volatility of the night market price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract opens low and moves high, and the volatility range of the overall night market price narrows. After the start of morning trading, futures prices fell slightly, falling below the 6300 mark as low as 6246, and afternoon prices were fluctuated. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 6246-6407 throughout the day, with a shortfall of 161009 contracts by 36028 positions, with 922745 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6487 and 94305 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2409 contract futures slightly pullback, giving up some of the previous gains, the high point of the futures price is also slightly lower than yesterday's peak, and the market continues to show a state of withdrawal, of which the air level 25.4% is almost the same as Duoping 25.5%, long and short both sides have left the market performance. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is still expanding, the KD line at the daily level crosses, and the trend of golden fork disappears. Although the futures price gives back part of the increase, but the futures price is still high, and can not determine the disappearance of the strong trend, but with the end of the policy fermentation, the market pullback slightly. In the short term, the operation of futures prices continues to observe the persistence of the high range of 6230-6450.

Spot aspect: & the correction of the nbsp; futures price makes the two-day point price offer return to the market, and the base offer expands slightly. Although there are offers for both the one-off price and the point price, the downstream products enterprises relatively resist the high price, and the supply of goods transferred between traders during the previous period of big price rise disappears today. First of all, the fundamentals of PVC have not changed greatly in the short term, and the start-up load of PVC plant is stable, but some PVC production enterprises began to overhaul in the middle and late ten days, and the material supply may be reduced, but the demand has always been lukewarm. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed lower, ending three consecutive gains, and recent WTI crude oil futures failed even to hold above $80 a barrel hit on Friday, as Fed officials said they were waiting for more signs of falling inflation before starting to cut interest rates. On the whole, in the short and short term, the spot price of PVC is mainly sorted out at a high level.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	May 20th	May 21	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	6383	6321	-62
	Average spot price in East China	6015	5940	-75
	Average spot price in South China	6050	5990	-60
	PVC2409 basis difference	-368	-381	-13
	V2501 collection	6544	6487	-57
	V2409-2501 close	-161	-166	-5
	PP2409 collection	7837	7794	-43
	Plastic L2409	8649	8579	-70
	V--PP basis difference	-1454	-1473	-19
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2266	-2258	8

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 48.07 or 0.809% to 5896.10 on May 21. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6171.19, down 77.26, or 1.236%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 275.09.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	Yesterday's warehouse order quantity	Today's warehouse order volume	Increase or decrease
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	4,241	4,241	0
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	2,053	2,053	0
	The central reserve is near the port	905	905	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,043	1,043	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	3,433	3,433	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,353	1,353	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	614	614	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	1,466	1,466	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,189	3,189	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,699	1,699	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	691	691	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,890	5,890	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,017	15,017	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	3,157	3,157	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	2,097	2,097	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,415	5,415	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,014	1,014	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	631	631	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	3,060	3,060	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	300	300	0
PVC subtotal		55,538	55,538	0
Total		55,538	55,538	0

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

Ranking of daily trading positions in Dalian Commodity Exchange (Table 1) Contract Code: v2409 query date: 20240521
Ranking	Member abbreviation	Trading volume	Increase or decrease
1	Guotai Junan (valet)	400,538	-86,429
2	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	289,707	-2,210
3	Citic Futures (valet)	281,135	-22,733
4	Huawen Futures (valet)	212,818	-122,321
5	Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet)	93,957	-16,640
6	Haitong Futures (valet)	89,341	-18,704
7	Galaxy Futures (valet)	79,968	-52,851
8	Huatai Futures (valet)	72,876	-10,885
9	Middle period of founder (valet)	72,074	-8,602
10	League of Nations Futures (valet)	67,521	12,966
11	Shenyin Wanguo (valet)	66,337	-20,801
12	Guangfa Futures (valet)	61,888	-12,366
13	Soochow Futures (valet)	59,453	-23,434
14	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	55,749	-23,782
15	Hua'an Futures (valet)	48,919	12,797
16	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	46,174	-16,684
17	Ruida Futures (valet)	33,937	-2,037
18	Huaxi Futures (valet)	33,557	-14,200
19	Xingzheng Futures (valet)	33,543	19,042
20	Oriental Wealth (valet)	33,389	-5,985
Total		2,132,881	-415,859

Ranking of daily trading positions in Dalian Commodity Exchange (Table 2) Contract Code: v2409 query date: 20240521
Ranking	Member abbreviation	Hold the purchase order quantity	Increase or decrease	Ranking	Member abbreviation	Hold sales order quantity	Increase or decrease
1	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	116,981	714	1	Guotai Junan (valet)	124,836	-3,564
2	Guotai Junan (valet)	53,158	4,770	2	Yongan Futures (valet)	63,434	1,921
3	Citic Futures (valet)	34,934	4,384	3	Citic Futures (valet)	55,413	453
4	Huatai Futures (valet)	32,206	-595	4	Galaxy Futures (valet)	45,371	-4,286
5	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	26,519	2,737	5	Shenyin Wanguo (valet)	40,053	-2,547
6	Yongan Futures (valet)	24,220	224	6	Guotou Anxin (valet)	33,991	1,145
7	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	24,128	-1,321	7	Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet)	33,778	-197
8	Galaxy Futures (valet)	23,630	-180	8	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	31,901	-9,510
9	Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet)	23,620	-2,503	9	Huatai Futures (valet)	27,342	-4,253
10	Middle period of founder (valet)	19,837	-874	10	CICC Wealth (valet)	20,661	1,142
11	Haitong Futures (valet)	18,319	-5,847	11	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	19,336	29
12	South China Futures (valet)	16,818	1,825	12	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	19,163	-2,961
13	Cofco Futures (valet)	14,534	610	13	Everbright Futures (valet)	16,070	-103
14	Sino-Thai Futures (valet)	14,518	-539	14	South China Futures (valet)	15,170	-1,458
15	Baocheng Futures (valet)	14,474	647	15	Donghai Futures (valet)	14,645	539
16	Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet)	14,398	412	16	Medium-sized products (valet)	13,975	721
17	Hua'an Futures (valet)	14,346	21	17	Guangfa Futures (valet)	13,865	181
18	Guangfa Futures (valet)	13,486	107	18	ITC Futures (valet)	11,969	142
19	Zhonghui Futures (valet)	12,841	125	19	Hongye Futures (valet)	11,477	-180
20	Everbright Futures (valet)	12,064	-89	20	Middle period of founder (valet)	10,533	-520
Total		525,031	4,628	Total		622,983	-23,306