PVC: The second high of futures broke sharply, some short positions on the market stopped losses, and spot prices continued to rise

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May 20, 2024, 4:31 PM

PVC futures analysis: may 20 V2409 contract opening price: 6300, highest price: 6449, lowest price: 6272, position: 958773, settlement price: 6354, yesterday settlement: 6219, up: 135, daily trading volume: 1897374 lots, precipitated capital: 4.284 billion, capital outflow: 674.8 billion.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	May seventeenth	May 20th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5700-5800	5830-5930	130/130	Send to cash remittance
East China	5830-5900	5980-6050	150/150	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5850-5950	6000-6100	150/150	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5600-5800	5700-5850	100/50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5750-5850	5850-5910	100/60	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5650-5750	5750-5850	100/100	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to rise sharply, the market is running well. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 130 yuan / ton, East China 150 yuan / ton, South China 150 yuan / ton, Northeast China 50-100 yuan / ton, Central China 60-100 yuan / ton, and Southwest China 100 yuan / ton. The factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises continues to rise, but today's rate of increase is different and more chaotic, with a range of 50-90-100-120 yuan / ton. Futures continue to be strong high breakthroughs, the spot market traders offer a comprehensive rise compared with last Friday, and in view of the current price soaring, resulting in the hedging policy lost the offer reference, the regional basis offer is not much, mainly with one price. And it is difficult to find a low price in the spot market, or a small profit of 10-20 yuan / ton for individual urgent pick-up sources in East and South China. On the whole, under the high price, the transaction between traders is dominant, and the downstream is not active in taking goods.

Futures point of view: PVC2409 contract last Friday night trading price narrow collation mainly, the futures price rose slightly in late trading. After the start of morning trading, the futures price rose significantly, and the high point further broke through the highest point of 6449, but then the futures price gave up some of the gains slightly downward and sorted out in a small range in the afternoon. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 6272 to 6449 throughout the day, with a spread of 177. 09 contracts reduced their positions by 28560 positions, with 958773 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6544 and 91490 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the high point of nbsp; PVC2409 contract futures is refreshed again, and today's futures price has broken sharply for the second time since it broke last Friday, and the highest point and operating range are initially in line with the range given in our forecast. The position shows a reduced position, and the position is 27.1% flat compared with 23.6% more flat. From the point of view of the position volume and transaction departure, we tend to consider some short order stops. The technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) continues to expand, the upper rail of the middle rail is obvious upward, and the lower rail is rapidly downward. The trend of the golden fork of the MACD line at the daily level is expanding. From the current operating state, the short-term operation of the futures price or continue to test the high range, it is recommended to observe the performance of the range of 6300-6500.

Spot: can first see from the feedback from the basis table in the daily newspaper that in the overall plasticizing plate, the upward price PVC bears the brunt, and the price increase far exceeds that of polyolefin PP and plastics. Second, at the close of midday trading, the main contract of Chinese futures rose more and fell less. Shanghai silver trading board rose 8%, manganese silicon and soda ash rose more than 6%, international copper, container transportation index, Shanghai copper rose more than 5%, Shanghai nickel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), urea rose more than 4%. Recently, the overall commodity sentiment is high, PVC is also greatly affected in the plasticizing plate, and the upside is also the largest. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals of PVC, on the contrary, the upward price has triggered the wait-and-see mood of downstream products companies, relatively resistant to high prices. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed higher, with Brent oil prices, the global benchmark, rising for the first time in three weeks as economic data from China and the United States boosted hopes for demand growth. On the whole, the PVC spot market may continue to run strongly in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	May seventeenth	May 20th	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	6296	6383	87
	Average spot price in East China	5865	6015	150
	Average spot price in South China	5900	6050	150
	PVC2409 basis difference	-431	-368	63
	V2501 collection	6448	6544	96
	V2409-2501 close	-152	-161	-9
	PP2409 collection	7774	7837	63
	Plastic L2409	8635	8649	14
	V--PP basis difference	-1478	-1454	24
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2339	-2266	73

China PVC Index: according to Tudor data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 128.17, or 2.204%, to 5944.17 on May 20. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6248.45, up 147.75, with a range of 2.422%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 304.28.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	Yesterday's warehouse order quantity	Today's warehouse order volume	Increase or decrease
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	4,241	4,241	0
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	2,053	2,053	0
	The central reserve is near the port	905	905	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,043	1,043	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	3,433	3,433	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,353	1,353	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	614	614	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	1,466	1,466	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	3,189	3,189	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,699	1,699	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	691	691	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,751	5,890	139
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	15,017	15,017	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	3,157	3,157	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	2,097	2,097	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,415	5,415	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,014	1,014	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	631	631	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	3,060	3,060	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	300	300	0
PVC subtotal		55,399	55,538	139
Total		55,399	55,538	139

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

Ranking of daily trading positions in Dalian Commodity Exchange (Table 1) Contract Code: v2409 query date: 20240520
Ranking	Member abbreviation	Trading volume	Increase or decrease
1	Guotai Junan (valet)	486,967	-83,617
2	Huawen Futures (valet)	335,139	13,928
3	Citic Futures (valet)	303,868	-16,339
4	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	291,917	-39,708
5	Galaxy Futures (valet)	132,819	9,668
6	Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet)	110,597	-10,383
7	Haitong Futures (valet)	108,045	11,787
8	Shenyin Wanguo (valet)	87,138	-27,150
9	Huatai Futures (valet)	83,761	-9,151
10	Soochow Futures (valet)	82,887	-18,893
11	Middle period of founder (valet)	80,676	-16,847
12	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	79,531	22,922
13	Guangfa Futures (valet)	74,254	-11,216
14	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	62,858	-18,864
15	League of Nations Futures (valet)	54,555	17,788
16	Huaxi Futures (valet)	47,757	21,050
17	Oriental Wealth (valet)	39,374	-8,063
18	Yongan Futures (valet)	38,033	-8,507
19	Cofco Futures (valet)	37,471	-906
20	Hua'an Futures (valet)	36,122	-21,488
Total		2,573,769	-193,989

Ranking of daily trading positions in Dalian Commodity Exchange (Table 2) Contract Code: v2409 query date: 20240520
Ranking	Member abbreviation	Hold the purchase order quantity	Increase or decrease	Ranking	Member abbreviation	Hold sales order quantity	Increase or decrease
1	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	116,267	960	1	Guotai Junan (valet)	128,400	-274
2	Guotai Junan (valet)	48,388	-22,581	2	Yongan Futures (valet)	61,513	5,838
3	Huatai Futures (valet)	32,801	646	3	Citic Futures (valet)	54,960	-9,645
4	Citic Futures (valet)	30,550	-2,033	4	Galaxy Futures (valet)	49,657	-9,794
5	Huizhou Merchants Futures (valet)	26,123	1,629	5	Shenyin Wanguo (valet)	42,600	20,230
6	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	25,449	396	6	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	41,411	3,540
7	Haitong Futures (valet)	24,166	-5,659	7	Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet)	33,975	-3,162
8	Yongan Futures (valet)	23,996	-2,001	8	Guotou Anxin (valet)	32,846	-885
9	Galaxy Futures (valet)	23,810	2,189	9	Huatai Futures (valet)	31,595	-4,785
10	Eastern Stock Exchange Futures (valet)	23,782	-1,517	10	Zhongcai Futures (valet)	22,124	-21,969
11	Middle period of founder (valet)	20,711	884	11	CICC Wealth (valet)	19,519	309
12	Sino-Thai Futures (valet)	15,057	2,702	12	Citic Construction Investment (valet)	19,307	810
13	South China Futures (valet)	14,993	-2,709	13	South China Futures (valet)	16,628	-1,049
14	Hua'an Futures (valet)	14,325	-1,912	14	Everbright Futures (valet)	16,173	-2,342
15	Zhejiang Merchants Futures (valet)	13,986	1,988	15	Donghai Futures (valet)	14,106	1,546
16	Cofco Futures (valet)	13,924	-761	16	Guangfa Futures (valet)	13,684	-998
17	Baocheng Futures (valet)	13,827	1,876	17	Medium-sized products (valet)	13,254	718
18	Guangfa Futures (valet)	13,379	-868	18	Ruida Futures (valet)	12,370	-185
19	Soochow Futures (valet)	13,375	1,666	19	ITC Futures (valet)	11,827	1,606
20	Hongyuan Futures (valet)	13,313	485	20	Hongye Futures (valet)	11,657	1,053
Total		522,222	-24,620	Total		647,606	-19,438