PVC: Futures have been favored by many real estate policies, and have skyrocketed and returned strongly. Spot prices have turned red and rose sharply.

PVC futures analysis: may 17 V2409 contract opening price: 6090, highest price: 6083, lowest price: 6308, position: 987333, settlement price: 6219, yesterday settlement: 6069, up: 150,150, daily trading volume: 987333 lots, precipitated capital: 4.351 billion, capital inflow: 464 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose sharply, the range is even as high as three digits. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 100-150 yuan / ton, East China 150 yuan / ton, South China 150 yuan / ton, Northeast China 150 yuan / ton, Central China 100-150 yuan / ton, and Southwest China 100 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises is generally raised by 100-130 yuan / ton, while some radical enterprises directly increase 200 yuan / ton, and the production enterprises offer actively. Futures rose sharply, and prices in various regions rose in an all-round way. after the futures price rose sharply, the basis offer had no obvious price advantage, and with the uplink of the futures price, the offer stopped, but there were some urgent pick-up sources in the market in the morning. The supply of goods disappeared in the afternoon, and the price rose in an all-round way. In the face of the sharp increase in prices downstream procurement intention is low, most temporarily wait and see, as a whole, some hedgers purchase forward sources of goods today.

From the perspective of futures: & the night futures price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract began to show obvious upward performance and the futures price rose all the way up. After the start of the morning trading, the futures price directly broke through the 6300 mark, the highest point 6308, and the afternoon futures price was mainly arranged in a narrow range. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 6083-6308 throughout the day, with a difference of 2255.09 contracts with an increase of 75010 positions, with 987334 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6448 and 93176 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures:   PVC2409 contract futures prices rose sharply and made a strong comeback. Brother V made a comeback. First of all, the fluctuation range changed to the narrow range in the early 2024. The daily fluctuation range of 225 points surprised the industry chain participants, and even the market was caught unprepared by the sudden rise. The operation of the futures price in the early forecast, we have always stressed that it shows a long arrangement and combination, but today's futures price has risen much more than expected. The high point of the futures price at the technical level has significantly broken the track upward, the technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin Belt (13, 13, 2) has expanded rapidly, the trend of the gold fork of the MACD line at the daily level is obvious, and the trend of increasing positions and rising bulls is obvious. Observe the further breakthrough and persistence of the high range in the short term, the first expected target is 6350-6500.

Spot side: & the upward trend of nbsp;  futures prices in both markets once again reflects that the momentum from the emotional level of the news far exceeds the range determined by the fundamentals. At the news level, 1. Today (May 17), the central bank continuously issued a notice that the down payment and loan interest rates for the purchase of houses have been lowered, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial loans for first homes has been adjusted to not less than 15%. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second homes has been adjusted to no less than 25%. The lending rate of personal housing provident fund will be reduced by 0.25 percentage point. Abolish the floor of commercial loan interest rates for the first and second homes at the national level, and the scope of assistance for "Baojiaolou" may be further expanded. On the afternoon of May 17, the real estate sector rapidly pulled up the whole line. 2. This (17th) morning, 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be officially launched. PVC futures bear the brunt of the formation of a large upward, feedback is relatively sensitive, the spot market also rose sharply, as a whole, the spot market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

China PVC Index:     according to Tudor data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 137.27, or 2.417%, to 5816.00 on May 17th. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6100.70, up 152.01, with a range of 2.555%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 284.70.

PVC warehouse receipt daily: