Daily Review of Urea: Manufacturers continue to ship goods and offers are still strong (May 16)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 16 was 2,389.86, an increase of 18.05 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.76% and a year-on-year increase of 3.38%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2145, the highest price is 2148, the lowest price is 2103, the settlement price is 2122, and the closing price is 2115. The closing price is 12 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.56% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2103-2148; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 285; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 1087 lots today, and so far, the position is 236375 lots.

The urea futures market remained mainly volatile within a narrow range. The current spot market atmosphere is still strong and has certain support for futures prices. However, the futures market temporarily lacks new tradable drivers. The existing profits are not enough to support prices to continue to move upwards. On the contrary, it may rush to run after the margin of the spot market atmosphere weakens in the future. Downward, subsequent futures prices may remain volatile until there is no new driver to wait and see market changes.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices are stable and rising. Companies have a better mentality under the support of reduced inventories and ready shipments, and most of their quotations continue to increase.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,290 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,370 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,320 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,300 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,230 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,430 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region rose to 2,390 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,300 - 2,750 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to ship, but they are still ready for shipment. There is no pressure to ship. Most companies have no inventory, their quotations are high and stable, and their mentality is mainly strong. In terms of the market, the focus of market transactions continues to move upwards, trading activity weakens, new orders in the market slows down, and the sentiment of industry players to chase high prices has cooled slightly. It is slightly difficult to deal at high prices. On the supply side, equipment maintenance plans have been implemented one after another. The supply of spot supplies in some factories is tight. The industry's daily output continues to decrease, and the supply side is still well supported. On the demand side, downstream fears of high market prices are gradually growing, and follow-up has slowed down. Most of them are just in need of follow-up, and purchasing sentiment is more cautious.

On the whole, the current large number of orders from urea manufacturers, coupled with the continuous shrinking supply, support the high urea price, and the offer is still strong. It is expected that the urea price will continue to be stable and consolidated at a high level in the short term until the positive supply and demand are digested.