Daily Review of Urea: The market continues to improve. The urea market exceeds demand (May 14)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 14 was 2,362.14, an increase of 21.68 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.93% and a year-on-year increase of 0.33%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 2151, the highest price is 2159, the lowest price is 2113, the settlement price is 2138, and the closing price is 2129. The closing price is 6 higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.28% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2113-2159; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 251; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 5078 lots today, and so far, it has held 239678 lots.

Today, urea futures prices remained mainly volatile in a narrow range, and some funds were withdrawn due to the overall market environment. Recently, the fundamentals of the urea market have not changed significantly. The bullish expectations in the spot market cannot be falsified for the time being, and the price support is strong. However, due to regulatory factors, the space above is difficult to imagine. There is a temporary lack of new drivers to dominate the market, and it may remain volatile in the short term.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market continued to rise steadily. Market prices rose. Supported by positive supply and demand, prices were difficult to go downward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,270 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,330 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,320 - 2,420 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,300 - 2,360 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,220 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,390 - 2,460 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,330 - 2,340 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,280 - 2,700 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to ship advance orders, and follow up on a small number of new orders. Companies are going to the warehouse, but shipments are under no pressure for a short period of time, and the quotations are firm and adjusted upward. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. Although the activity of new orders is not as high as that of the previous period, the spot market is still strong, the market fundamentals are strong, and prices continue to rise. On the supply side, companies with maintenance plans have stopped operations one after another, the industry has started construction and Nissan has continued to decline, and the market's spot supply is still tight, creating a positive situation. On the demand side, the downstream is just in need of continuation, and the high market price is affected. The purchasing mentality is more cautious, and appropriate follow-up is the main focus.

On the whole, the current urea market is tight and prices are rising, which has formed positive results and supported the upward trend of prices. It is expected that the urea market atmosphere will continue in a short period of time and prices will be consolidated at a high level.