Methanol: Chinese market continues to fall, market transaction sentiment is limited

On May 11, the methanol market price index was 2,483.83, down 6.4 from yesterday and 0.26% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on May 10:

China CFR 305-3100 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton;
US FOB 94-95 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 363-364 US $/ton, flat;

European FOB 301-302 euros/ton, up 0.25 euros/ton.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 2400-2430 (0), North Line:2440 (0), Southern Shandong:2530 (0), Henan:2450-2480 (-50), Shanxi: 2450-2530 (-30), Port:2680-2690 (20)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 210-250 (0/0), North Line-Southern Shandong 280-310 (0/0), South Line-Northern Shandong 260-300 (0/10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-290 (0/0)

Spot market: Today, the price of methanol in the Chinese market has dropped sharply. The prices of orders received by some regional traders have been lowered. The downstream market has little enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are operating in a weak position. The price for the southern line is around 2350 yuan/ton, which remains unchanged from yesterday, and the price for the northern line is around 2350 yuan/ton. The overall transaction atmosphere in the regional market has weakened, and manufacturers 'prices have continued to fall. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have fallen within a narrow range, with 2530 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 2,600 - 2,630 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. At present, the downstream market is under severe pressure and is resistant to high-priced sources of goods, and there is little enthusiasm for replenishing goods in the market. The market quotation in North China has been adjusted within a narrow range. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,560 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is sluggish and weak, and the market transaction atmosphere has weakened. Some methanol companies are operating to save and transfer profits, and the market price has been slightly lowered; Shanxi's price today is 2,450 - 2,530 yuan/ton, with a reduction of 30 yuan/ton at the low-end. Downstream manufacturers are affected by cost-side pressure and are cautious about purchasing methanol, and the overall market transaction is not good.

Aftermarket forecast: Looking at the Chinese market, as prices continue to increase in the early stage, profits of downstream industries have been further compressed. Terminal operators are not enthusiastic about replenishing goods in the market, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is relatively light. Although there are still plans for storage and maintenance of methanol units in the future, some pre-stage parking units will return one after another, and the market supply side will provide good support or weaken. Moreover, the current downstream market demand is not performing well. The price of methanol is maintained at a low level, and there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In terms of the port market, some foreign units have been stopped unexpectedly recently, and methanol imports have decreased within a narrow range in the later period. Coupled with the shrinking of port arbitrage space, there are not many supplementary sources of domestic trade, which still has certain support for the port's basis in a short period of time. On the whole, it is expected that the methanol market will trend differently in the short term. China will continue to operate in a weak position, and port spot prices may remain high. However, coal prices and the operation of on-site equipment will still need to be paid attention to in the later period.