Daily Review of Urea: Market supply continues to shrink, corporate quotations continue to increase (May 11)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 11 was 2,326.18, an increase of 6.36 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.16%.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price rise in China's urea market slowed down, the downstream fear of high prices gradually became apparent, and market supply continued to decline, forming positive support. Today's quotation continued to increase.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,210 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,300 - 2,360 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,310 - 2,420 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,260 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,180 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,370 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 2,260 - 2,650 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, although the number of new orders transactions by manufacturers has decreased recently, due to the tight spot supply of manufacturers in mainstream regions, the sales pressure of companies has not been prominent for the time being. Manufacturers 'quotations are stable and firm, and some factories are reluctant to sell and mainly support prices. On the market side, the transaction of new orders in the market has slowed down, trading sentiment has weakened, the market has a temporary stalemate, and operators have a wait-and-see mentality, and have limited bearish mentality in the future. In terms of supply, corporate maintenance plans are approaching this month, spot supply in the market continues to be tight, industry start-ups have declined, and Nissan has declined. On the demand side, the industrial compound fertilizer factory is still in the period of high nitrogen fertilizer production in summer, and the downstream just needs to follow up and continue, which has formed a strong support for urea consumption. However, under the influence of the current high market prices, the downstream procurement mentality is more cautious and the pace is relatively slow.

On the whole, the current urea market continues to operate strongly, downstream procurement demand is limited to follow-up, and it is difficult for prices to continue to rise. It is expected that urea market prices will continue to be under upward pressure in the short term, and the range will be stable and small.