Methanol: The methanol period is now adjusting within a narrow range and the market transaction atmosphere is limited

On May 10th, the methanol market price index was 2490.23, down 16.06 from yesterday, down 0.64% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 9:

China's CFR ranges from US $305 to US $309 per ton, down by US $1 per ton.
Us FOB 94-95 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon
CFR in Southeast Asia: us $363,364 per ton, Ping

European FOB 300.75-301.75 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2400-2430 (0), North Route: 2440 (0), Lunan: 2620 (- 30), Henan: 2500-2510 (- 40), Shanxi: 2480-2530 (- 10), Port: 2660-2675 (10)

Freight:

Northern Route-210-250 Northern Shandong (10thumb 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 280-310 (0Unip 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-290 (10ppm 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-290 (0lap10)

Spot market: today, methanol futures market prices fell in a narrow range. With the continuous increase of methanol prices in the previous period, downstream operators hold certain resistance to high prices, the enthusiasm to enter the market restocking is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market price fluctuation in the main producing areas is limited. The quotation on the southern line revolves around 2380 yuan / ton, and yesterday, the quotation on the northern line revolves around 2440 yuan / ton. Recently, part of the downstream is negative under cost pressure and parking operations, and the performance on the demand side is weak. The transaction prices of some bidding enterprises have declined and there is a failed auction phenomenon, and the operators hold a wait-and-see mood to the future. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell in a narrow range, with 2620 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2660-2680 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The recent market demand in the lower reaches is general, the downstream capacity to receive goods from high-priced sources is limited, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weakening. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2560-2630 yuan / ton today, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened somewhat. Affected by the recent weakening of the main methanol futures market, there is a lack of confidence in business sentiment. Today's quotation in Shanxi is 2480-2530 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. the inventory of manufacturers in the region is not high, and the price-raising mentality of manufacturers is obvious, but downstream manufacturers are affected by the pressure on the cost end, so they are cautious about buying methanol, and the overall transaction in the market is not good.

Port market: today, methanol futures first suppress and then rise. Spot shipments are few; morning paper goods continue to buy gas, the basis continues to strengthen; then shipments increase, buy gas weakens, the basis falls. Afternoon talks reduced, the basis stabilized, and transactions were active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot order: 2660-2670, deal: 2640-2665, base difference 09: 105, base difference: 115, transaction price: 2620-2645, basis difference: 09, 83amp, 95: 6, transaction: 2580-2595, basis difference: 09, 50, 65.

Future forecast: in the near future, the overall supply pressure in the Chinese market is not great, at present, the overall inventory of manufacturers can be controlled, and the short-term supply-side favorable support still exists, but after entering next week, Donghua, Zhonghai Chemical, Jiutai (Tuoxian) and other devices return one after another, the market is started or expected to increase, the positive support on the supply side gradually weakens, and as methanol prices continue to maintain relatively high levels, losses in some downstream markets intensify. Some olefin units are expected to be overhauled in advance, and the demand side is obviously insufficient with the rising power. At present, the Chinese market is still in the supply and demand game stage, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to adjust in a narrow range, but considering the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is not great, the spot price of methanol may be relatively limited, but we should pay attention to the coal price in the later stage.