Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the market price of soda ash in China has temporarily stabilized. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 2,250 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton; the start-up of soda ash enterprises is basically stable, market production and sales are balanced, and market prices are basically stable; Downstream demand is basically stable, and procurement is maintained. However, downstream companies still have certain resistance to high-priced soda ash, and prices may temporarily remain stable in the short term.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on May 9, was 2192 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2212 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of +0.36%. The intraday high was 2229 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2176 yuan/ton, with a total position of 796751 lots, a month-on-month +2469 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fluctuated mainly within a narrow range. Spot market prices are relatively stable. Although they suppress the upside of futures prices to a certain extent, they also form support for the bottom of prices. The current supply reduction and demand growth expectations faced by the main contract have not yet been falsified. However, with the growth of downstream raw material inventories and the resistance to high-priced raw materials, the periodic contradiction between supply and demand has slowed down, which cannot constitute further positive feedback for the time being. In the short term, the market or Maintain high levels of shocks and wait for new drivers.
market outlook
The soda ash market has started relatively stable, and companies can still order orders in the short term, which provides strong support for the inventory of soda plants; downstream companies have a certain reserve in raw material inventories, mainly replenishing the stock in an appropriate amount. The mainstream price of soda ash is basically stable, and some transactions can be negotiated in a single manner. The soda ash market price may continue to operate firmly in the short term.
