Methanol: The spot market is operating at a high level and the downstream is mainly in need of replenishment

On May 8, the methanol market price index was 2517.89, up 8% from yesterday and 0.33% higher than the previous day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 7:

China's CFR ranges from US $306 to US $310 per ton, up US $3 per ton.
Us FOB 97-98 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon
CFR in Southeast Asia: us $358-359 per ton, Ping

European FOB 301-302 euros / ton, down 1.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2400-2430 (0), North Route: 2440 (0), Lunan: 2670-2680 (0), Henan: 2560-2590 (00), Shanxi: 2500-2530 (0), Port: 2650-2675 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 180-240 (- 10 Uniqtel 20), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 260-280 (- 20 Universe 40), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-270 (20 amp 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-260 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the spot market price of methanol is high, and at present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, coupled with the parking and maintenance of some devices, the market supply pressure in the region is not great, and the consumption of the downstream market is stable, supporting the high price operation of the Chinese market. Specifically, the market price fluctuation in the main producing areas is limited, and the quotation on the south line revolves around 2380 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the price on the north line revolves around 2440 yuan / ton, the market price is maintained at a high level under the favorable support of the supply side, and the price of some manufacturers is adjusted up narrowly. The market transaction atmosphere is OK, but with the sustained high price of methanol, we need to pay attention to the ability of downstream to accept the high price in the later stage. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2670-2680 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2680-2700 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, the shipments of manufacturers in Shandong are good, mainly in low inventory. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation 2630-2690 yuan / ton today, 90 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, some downstream manufacturers have a strong resistance to the high price of methanol, follow-up is more cautious, rigid demand procurement; Shanxi quotation today 2500-2530 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, some downstream manufacturers purchase sentiment is low, the transaction is difficult to have volume, but manufacturers are not willing to reduce prices.

Port market: methanol futures rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. Spot and forward paper goods actively buy gas in the morning, the basis is significantly stronger; afternoon selling increased, buying gas weakened, the basis pullback. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 5: 2645-2685, basis + 90 picks 100%, 5% deal: 2640-2670, basis + 80 pm 90%, 5% deal: 2615-2655, basis + 65 pm 75% 6, deal: 2590-2630, basis + 30 pm 45.

Future forecast: in the near future, the overall supply pressure in the Chinese market is not great, and Rongxin overhauls as scheduled, the Jiutai (Tuoxian) plant stops for a short time, the regional supply is favorable and the support is obvious, and the rigid demand replenishment demand still exists in the downstream market at present. Under the influence of favorable support of supply and demand, the manufacturer's quotation remains high, but as the methanol price remains high, the production pressure of the downstream industry is prominent, and some operators have a certain resistance to the current high price. The overall enthusiasm for restocking in the market is limited. At present, under the supply and demand game, the short-term methanol market price is expected to be high, but in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the downstream demand follow-up in order to wipe off sweat and the operation of the plant in the field.