PVC: Futures continued to rise at high levels and broke through again. Technical breaks twice, and the spot market continues to improve

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May 8, 2024, 4:23 PM

PVC futures analysis: may 8th V2409 contract opening price: 6035, highest price: 6078, lowest price: 6013, position: 936544, settlement price: 6044, yesterday settlement: 5997, up: 47, daily trading volume: 1062169 lots, precipitated capital: 3.947 billion, capital outflow: 752.8 billion.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	May 7th	May 8th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5490-5550	5550-5610	60/60	Send to cash remittance
East China	5600-5760	5650-5760	50/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5650-5750	5680-5780	30/30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5450-5650	5480-5680	30/30	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5600-5670	5640-5710	40/40	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5530-5650	5580-5670	50/20	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to rise, the market atmosphere is good. Compared with the valuation, it rose by 60 yuan / ton in North China, 50-70 yuan / ton in East China, 30 yuan / ton in South China, 30 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 40 yuan / ton in Central China and 20-50 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices yesterday did not rise today, the range is concentrated in 30-50-70 yuan / ton, production enterprises offer actively, there is a certain amount of contract signing, but a generation of businessmen still have a wait-and-see mentality. The high point of futures has broken through again, the spot market has warmed up, and the price offers of merchants in various regions have been raised again. After the operation of high futures prices, the supply of point prices has no price advantage, but the two quotation methods coexist and the basis is maintained in the early stage. Among them, East China basis offer 09 contract-(350-370), South China 09 contract-(250-270), North 09 contract-(550-600), Southwest 09 contract-(400). On the whole, although the quotation continues to rise, there is little support for high-price offers in the market, some of which are negotiated in a small way, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is not high.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract continues to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the direction of the price is not clear. After the beginning of morning trading, futures prices continued to show upward performance on the basis of night trading, and afternoon prices weakened from their highs and gave up some of their gains. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 6013-6078 throughout the day, with a shortfall of 65. 09 contracts by 16117 positions, with 936548 positions so far, 2501 contracts closing at 6179 and 936548 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The high point of the PVC2409 contract futures price once again showed the performance before the breakthrough, and the overall fluctuation range was within the high range, but the market showed a certain trend of position reduction compared with yesterday. In terms of transaction, more than 23.4% of which was more than 21.6% of the short opening, which was also the main reason for the upside of the early trading price, but some positions were closed in the afternoon. Caused the futures price to give up some of the increase. The technical level shows that the opening of the third track of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) diverges, and the price breaks through the upper track for the second time, but there is a negative column with a long shadow line throughout the day, and a certain empty force appears on the disk. In the short term, the operation of futures prices continues to observe the stability and persistence of the high range of 5970-6100.

Spot aspect: & the high point of the price operation of the two cities in the nbsp; period also continues to show a high-level rising situation. Merchants in various regions of the spot market are more enthusiastic in quotation, but the downstream reception of high prices in Chengdu is not good, a small number of transactions and there is a certain profit margin, downstream products enterprises are mainly procurement. Looking at the current two cities, from the time node, although the upward price of the two cities is more inclined to the property market policy, the macro policy in the third quarter belongs to the stage of strength according to experience. therefore, the overall market has certain expectations in this period of time in a comprehensive rhythm. In the outer disk, oil prices fell as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its global oil production forecast for this year and lowered its demand forecast, suggesting that the market is well supplied and market merchants are focused on the latest US inventory data. On the whole, we believe that the PVC spot market can fluctuate narrowly at a new level in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	May 7th	May 8th	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	6032	6021	-11
	Average spot price in East China	5680	5705	25
	Average spot price in South China	5700	5730	30
	PVC2409 basis difference	-352	-316	36
	V2501 collection	6185	6179	-6
	V2409-2501 close	-153	-158	-5
	PP2409 collection	7593	7567	-26
	Plastic L2409	8503	8490	-13
	V--PP basis difference	-1561	-1546	15
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2471	-2469	2

China PVC Index: according to Tudor data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 21.47, or 0.38%, to 5666.10 on May 8. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5942.82, up 50.53, or 0.858%, the calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 276.72.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	5.7 warehouse order volume	5.8 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,335	2,513	178
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	1,090	1,203	113
	The central reserve is near the port	190	255	65
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	815	815	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,154	2,571	417
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	561	919	358
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	601	601	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	992	1,051	59
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	60	60	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,640	1,640	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	904	904	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	415	615	200
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,257	5,257	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	8,004	9,332	1,328
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	1,515	1,515	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	304	544	240
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,035	5,035	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	618	850	232
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	379	379	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,560	1,560	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	0	300	300
PVC subtotal		31,914	34,809	2,895
Total		31,914	34,809	2,895