PVC: Futures made a strong breakthrough and rose sharply, shocking bullish sentiment, and spot prices rose twice

PVC futures analysis: may 7 V2409 contract opening price: 5934, highest price: 6041, lowest price: 5933, position: 952664, settlement price: 5997, yesterday settlement: 5924, up: 20, daily trading volume: 462832 lots, precipitated capital: 4.741 billion, capital outflow: 113 million.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	May 6th	May 7th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5450-5510	5490-5550	40/50	Send to cash remittance
East China	5560-5640	5700-5760	70/60	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5630-5680	5650-5750	20/70	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5400-5600	5450-5650	50/50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5600	5600-5670	50/70	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5480-5600	5530-5650	50/50	Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are significantly upward, both ex-factory prices and market prices are up. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 40-50 yuan / ton, East China 60-70 yuan / ton, South China 20-70 yuan / ton, Northeast China 50 yuan / ton, Central China 50-70 yuan / ton, and Southwest China 50 yuan / ton. The factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises are mostly raised by 30-50 yuan / ton, including the simultaneous upward quotation of remote storage, the strength of the futures market is obvious, and it is rare for production enterprises to adjust at a unified pace. And the spot market traders in all regions have raised their prices one after another, rising 20-30 yuan / ton in the morning. With the further upward of the futures price, the intraday price even rose twice, with a cumulative range of 50 yuan / ton. After the futures price went up, the basis advantage disappeared, but there were still offers, including 09 contracts in East China-(350-370), 09 contracts in South China-(250-270), 09 contracts in the North-(550-600). Southwest 09 contract-(400). Although the price has risen, there is still resistance to the completion of high-price offers in the spot market, and the supply of goods at low prices has decreased compared with the previous period.

 

From a futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract opened in a narrow range and then rose slightly. After the start of morning trading, the futures price rose further and successfully broke through the prefix of 6, and the afternoon price continued to be strong and high, which was running at the high level until the end of the day. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5933-6041 throughout the day, with a shortfall of 108. 09 contracts with an increase of 64969 positions, with 952664 positions so far, 05 contracts closing at 5840, and positions of 35698 hands.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures:   PVC2409 contract futures showed a significant upward trend. First of all, the fluctuation range of the futures price expanded and even reached 108 points. On the other hand, the futures price continued to move upward, successfully breaking through the highest point of the prefix 6 and reaching 6041, and the afternoon futures price stepped firmly above the prefix 6 and did not show a pullback. Futures trading opened 28.6% more than short opening 23.9%, which surprised the bulls in the short-dominated scene. At the technical level, it shows that the opening of the third track of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is open, and the price continues to move upward from the middle rail, breaking through the upper rail position and continuing to move upward. In the short term, futures prices observe the persistence of the strong range of 6000-6050.

 

Spot:    first of all emotional close at noon, most of the main Chinese futures contracts rose, eggs rose more than 4%, Container Index (European line), soybean meal rose more than 3%, bean 2, rapeseed meal, manganese silicon, palm oil, red jujube, vegetable oil, glass rose more than 2%. Secondly, the news level feedback on the May Day holiday period of the property market relaxation policy hype, "co-sale" and "acquisition type" coexist, the state-owned enterprise platform or developers directly buy old houses, the sale money is used to buy designated new housing projects. The largest scale of this round of trade-in policy is Zhengzhou, promoting "trade-in" or reducing the investment scale of indemnificatory housing. In this period, the upside of the two cities is more from the stimulation of the news, and less from the fundamentals of PVC. Therefore, the persistence of the strong operation of the two cities remains to be seen, and in the short term, the PVC spot market may consider narrow fluctuations in the new stage after the push.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	May 6th	May 7th	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	5934	6032	98
	Average spot price in East China	5600	5730	130
	Average spot price in South China	5655	5700	45
	PVC2409 basis difference	-334	-302	32
	V2501 collection	6095	6185	90
	V2409-2501 close	-161	-153	8
	PP2409 collection	7529	7593	64
	Plastic L2409	8405	8503	98
	V--PP basis difference	-1595	-1561	34
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2471	-2471	0

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tudou data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 71.94% to 5644.63 on May 7, up 1.291%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5892.29, up 54.96, with a range of 0.942%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 247.66.

 

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	5.6 warehouse order volume	5.7 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,335	2,335	0
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	1,090	1,090	0
	The central reserve is near the port	190	190	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	815	815	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,154	2,154	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	561	561	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	601	601	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	992	992	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	60	60	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,640	1,640	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	904	904	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	415	415	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,257	5,257	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	8,004	8,004	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	1,515	1,515	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	304	304	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,035	5,035	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	618	618	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	379	379	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,560	1,560	0
PVC subtotal		31,914	31,914	0
Total		31,914	31,914	0

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

The information provided in this report is for reference only.