Analysis of soda ash market
After the holiday, the price of soda ash in China has temporarily stabilized. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in North China is 2,150 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 2,250 - 2,400 yuan/ton; there have been minor adjustments in the start-up of soda ash enterprises, and individual enterprises have begun to repair their equipment. At present, the soda ash market is still at a high level; Downstream demand remains stable, companies are still cautious in purchasing, mainly in need of procurement. Soda plants still have some orders on hand. Market supply and demand are basically balanced, and the soda ash market is operating stably.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on May 6, was 2146 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2262 yuan/ton, an increase of +2.68% within the day. The intraday high was 2262 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2141 yuan/ton, with a total position of 778826 lots, a month-on-month +51556 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices opened low and went high, recovering sharply, and safe-haven funds once again returned to the market. During the holidays, the supply of soda ash increased slightly, demand slowed down, and inventories accumulated month-on-month. However, subsequent supply-side maintenance disturbances will continue, and the expected contradiction of tight dynamic supply-demand relationships still exists. On the demand side, the raw material inventories of most float glass companies are already relatively safe, and the sustainability of short-term new orders receipt needs to be considered. The spot market is receiving feedback that further creates potential pressure. However, when raw material prices are in an upward stage and supply is disturbed, downstream companies learn from last year After experience, it is also difficult to compress raw material inventories and force price cuts. To sum up, the market may maintain a strong trend until expectations of supply reduction and demand increase cannot be falsified, and some manufacturers are willing to increase prices. However, we should also be vigilant that futures prices will fall again after positive feedback from the spot market is difficult to maintain in the short term.
market outlook
The supply of soda plants remained high, and the start of some companies was volatile. Due to the support of orders on hand, production and sales temporarily remained in balance, and there were expectations for a decline. Downstream demand was generally good, and the market transaction atmosphere was still good. Companies purchased more low-priced soda ash, and the high-priced market still There is resistance, and the soda ash market is expected to continue to fluctuate mainly in the short term.
