PVC: Futures small Masukura fluctuates within a narrow range, trends are insufficient for tentative adjustment, and spot fluctuates within a narrow range

PVC futures analysis: may 6th V2409 contract opening price: 5906, highest price: 5947, lowest price: 5901, position: 887695, settlement price: 5924, yesterday settlement: 5944, down: 20, daily trading volume: 462832 lots, precipitated capital: 4.741 billion, capital outflow: 113 million.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April 30th	May 6th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5450-5530	5450-5510	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5570-5670	5560-5640	-10/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5630-5680	5630-5680	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5400-5600	5400-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5620	5550-5600	0/-20	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5500-5620	5480-5600	-20/-20	Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    Chinese PVC market mainstream transaction prices are mainly arranged in a narrow range, and the price adjustment on the first day after the festival is relatively cautious. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 20 yuan / ton in North China, 10-30 yuan / ton in East China, stable in South China, stable in Northeast China, 20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises mostly maintain stable ex-factory prices, there is no obvious adjustment action, production enterprises wait and see the market. The fluctuation range of the narrow range arrangement of futures is small, the guidance to the spot market is not strong, and the futures price is relatively high, whether it is a single price or a point price inquiry, and the basis change is relatively small. Among them, East China basis offer 09 contract-(300-350), South China 09 contract-(250), North 09 contract-(550-600), Southwest 09 contract-(400). After the festival came back the spot market performance is relatively calm, the market, whether the production enterprises or middlemen and downstream all hold a certain wait-and-see mentality, the lower reaches of the goods are relatively cautious, trading continues to remain light today.

 

From the futures point of view:   PVC2409 contract prices opened low and high, and the futures price showed a certain upward trend from the low point, but the highest point did not continue to break through after reaching 5947, but began to weaken slightly and rose slightly in the afternoon. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5901-5947 throughout the day, with a difference of 4609 contracts with an increase of 19744 positions, with 887695 positions so far, 05 contracts closing at 5746 and 35316 positions.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operating range of nbsp; PVC2409 contract futures is relatively narrow, with only 46 points fluctuating throughout the day. In terms of transaction, the short opening of 24.2% is higher than that of 23.9%, and the number of long opening is about the same in the increase of more than 197,000 positions. The operation of the futures price shows a narrow candle chart, and the high point of the futures price shows three small declines since the festival. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) narrows, and the futures price runs through the middle track. The stimulation of the outer disk factors during the festival period was mentioned in the forecast before the festival, but there were no more directional factors as a whole, the first day after the festival opened smoothly, and the operation of the futures price continued to test the direction of the mid-track position in the short term. observe the fluctuations in the range of 5880-5980.

 

Spot aspect:    spot market spot price and one-bite price coexist on the first day after the festival, but the performance of the transaction is light. On the one hand, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong, and the futures market on the first day after the festival does not see a more directional guidance, so the price base offer advantage is small, and the spot market with rigid demand has caused the current social inventory to remain high, delayed to get a good performance. At present, there are not many variables in the supply and demand level, the start-up load of PVC production enterprises is stable, and the rigid demand of downstream products enterprises is mainly purchasing, but the calcium carbide price has been slightly increased by 50 yuan / ton during the holiday period and today, but it has little impact on the overall period of the two cities, and the market still lacks sufficient guiding factors. In the outer disk, the price of the international crude oil futures market continued to fall as the US economic data was weak, the survey showed that the US service industry unexpectedly shrank in April, and the US April employment data was also weaker than expected, weakening the US economy and oil demand prospects. On the whole, in the short term, the spot market will continue to be mainly arranged in a narrow range.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April 30th	May 6th	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	5924	5934	10
	Average spot price in East China	5620	5600	-20
	Average spot price in South China	5655	5655	0
	PVC2409 basis difference	-304	-334	-30
	V2501 collection	6083	6095	12
	V2409-2501 close	-159	-161	-2
	PP2409 collection	7619	7529	-90
	Plastic L2409	8494	8405	-89
	V--PP basis difference	-1695	-1595	100
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2570	-2471	99

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 11.06% to 5572.69 on May 6, down 0.198%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5837.33, up 18.68%, with a range of 0.321%. The calcium carbide method index decreased, the ethylene method index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 264.64.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.30 warehouse orders	5.6 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,263	2,335	72
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	1,090	1,090	0
	The central reserve is near the port	118	190	72
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	815	815	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,154	2,154	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	561	561	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	601	601	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	992	992	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	60	60	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,640	1,640	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	904	904	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	415	415	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	5,257	5,257	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	8,004	8,004	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	1,515	1,515	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	304	304	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	5,035	5,035	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	618	618	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	379	379	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,560	1,560	0
PVC subtotal		31,842	31,914	72
Total		31,842	31,914	72

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

The information provided in this report is for reference only.