Daily review of urea: After the holiday, the supply and demand side has formed a positive trend. Factory quotations have remained stable and increased (May 6)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the price index of urea small pellets on May 6 was 2,277.86, an increase of 19.09 from the previous working day, a month-on-month increase of 0.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.19%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2068, the highest price is 2142, the lowest price is 2068, the settlement price is 2109, and the closing price is 2140. The closing price has increased by 88 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 4.29% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2068-2142; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 120; the 09 contract has increased its position by 21323 lots today, and so far, it has held 240111 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices are stabilizing and consolidating upwards after the holiday. During the festival, market demand is better, companies have increased their new orders, the market is better, and many company quotations have been raised.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,160 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,250 - 2,310 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,270 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,160 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,320 - 2,430 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,230 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,230 - 2,550 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, during the holidays, manufacturers mainly ship early orders, but a small number of new orders were sold, and manufacturers had little pressure on shipping. Under the support of waiting, factories were less willing to adjust prices, and mainly increased prices. In terms of the market, market trading activity declined during the festival, and on-site trading operations were basically stable; after the holiday, the market temporarily waited and saw, with prices stable and consolidated, with limited fluctuations. On the supply side, urea companies have low inventories and concentrated equipment maintenance in the industry after the holiday. Supply continues to shrink, creating positive results. On the demand side, agriculture needs rice fertilizer to be replenished in stages, and the demand is relatively limited, so appropriate follow-up is maintained; industrial compound fertilizer factories still consume a certain amount of raw material urea, and demand is high while continuous replenishment.

On the whole, after the holiday, companies in the urea market continue to ship and advance shipments in advance, inventories are still at a low level, supply is shrinking, replenishment on the demand side continues to follow up, and positive results are formed on the supply and demand side. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to increase in a short period of time. The overall upward trend is limited.