[Soda ash]4.30 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash prices remain stable and market production and sales are basically balanced

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the price of soda ash in China is stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 2,100 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is between 1,900 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,000 yuan/ton; the soda ash market is basically stable, and the supply remains at a high level. Enterprises have some orders in hand; As the holidays approach, the market transaction atmosphere weakens. Downstream companies have basically prepared raw material inventories, and individual companies have purchased appropriate amounts. The production and sales of the soda ash market are basically balanced, and the market is operating well.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on April 30, was 2238 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2176 yuan/ton, an increase of-3.89% within the day. The highest intraday session was 2246 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2161 yuan/ton, with a total position of 727270 lots, a month-on-month period of-103918 lots.

Today, soda ash futures prices fell sharply, and funds left the market mainly to avoid risks before the holiday. This week, the quotations of major manufacturers have not been adjusted, which has temporarily suspended the momentum of upward futures prices. However, the current supply-side maintenance disturbance continues. Although supply has recovered recently, there are still maintenance companies in May and June, and the expected contradiction of tight dynamic supply and demand relationship still exists. On the demand side, the raw material inventories of most float glass companies are already relatively safe, and the sustainability of short-term receipt of new orders needs to be considered. The spot market is receiving feedback that further creates pressure. At present, the main contract is facing strong expectations of summer reductions on the supply side and large growth in photovoltaics on the demand side. The market may maintain a strong trend until the expectation of supply reduction and demand increase cannot be falsified. Moreover, some manufacturers are willing to raise prices next month. Pay attention to whether inventory changes and market feedback support upstream price increases.

market outlook

Orders in hand from soda factories will remain until around the middle of next month. There is not much pressure on enterprises 'inventories, and market start-up remains stable. In May, some enterprises still have maintenance plans, and the scale of the maintenance enterprises is not small, and the market supply will be damaged again. The soda ash market may continue to be tentatively priced, and the overall operation may remain strong.