Daily review of urea: Companies have issued enough orders and quotes before holidays are stable and sorted out (April 30)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 30 was 2,258.77, an increase of 1.82 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.51%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 2075, the highest price is 2079, the lowest price is 2028, the settlement price is 2052, and the closing price is 2056. The closing price is 17% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.82% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2028-2079; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 184; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 16230 lots today, and so far, the position has been held by 218788 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price trend of China's urea market continued to rise, and the overall price rose slightly. Before the holiday, companies were more executing and bidding prices were stable.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,160 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 2,240 - 2,280 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,250 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,260 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,120 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,300 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,170 - 2,180 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,180 - 2,550 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to ship advance orders and continue to ship out of the warehouse. Recently, the number of new orders has decreased significantly. Although the May Day holiday is approaching, most companies have no pressure on shipments. The current quotations are stable, and the quotations of some manufacturers are slightly loose. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere has declined, and the market has basically remained stable before the holiday. It has temporarily remained sluggish and deadlocked, with limited changes. In terms of supply, industry supply continues to decline, and market spot tension continues. Most units have been started for maintenance after the holiday, and market supply is still expected to shrink. On the demand side, there are many downstream purchases and just need to replenish, and the compound fertilizer factory continues to start at a high level. Demand for raw material urea is strong, and downstream needs still exist.

On the whole, although the current trading atmosphere in the urea market has dropped compared with the previous period, companies have better orders in the early stage and sufficient orders to be sent. In addition, the shrinking supply has formed a positive situation. Quotes before the holidays are mostly stable and consolidated. It is expected that the urea market prices will continue to be stable and adjusted in a short period of time.