Methanol: Methanol is now rebounding at a low level supported by low inventories

On April 29, the methanol market price index was 2470.31, up 34.68 from yesterday and 1.42 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on April 26:

China CFR 298-302USD / t, Ping
Us FOB 98-99 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 305.25-306.25 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2370-2420 (20), North Route: 2400-2420 (0), Lunan: 2650-2670 (70), Henan: 2560-2600 (40), Shanxi: 2340-2490 (0), Port: 26202650 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-320 (0ax 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 340-370 (0max 0), Southern Line-Northern Shandong 250-300 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price rose narrowly. Yesterday, some methanol enterprises in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia were mainly auctioned at a premium, with a marked increase. At present, the inventory discharge process of manufacturers is smooth, and most of the pre-holiday inventory has fallen to a low level. Under the rise in the main producing areas, today, market prices in various regions have risen in different ranges. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern route around 2320 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2400-2420 yuan / ton. recently, under the load reduction operation of some devices in the main producing areas and the expectation of follow-up maintenance, the market supply side of the market is good to support. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, has been raised along with it, with southern Shandong 2650-2670 yuan / ton, low-end 70 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2700-2720 yuan / ton, and low-end 150 yuan / ton. at present, the shipments of manufacturers in the region are good, mainly in low inventory. The market quotation in North China is running stably for the time being. Hebei quotation is 2450-2600 yuan / ton today. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, which has a certain support for the mentality of operators; Shanxi quotation today is 2340-2490 yuan / ton, and methanol manufacturers' inventory is low at present. The willingness to lower the market quotation is not high.

Port market: methanol futures are highly volatile today. Spot and 4 holding goods are sold and purchased on demand; in the distant months, some of them are sold high and sucked low, and the basis is stable. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2625-2650, base difference 09 "95prime" 100x transaction 4: 2620-2630, base difference 09 "90pm" 95x transaction 5: 2595-2615, basis 09 "70pm" 75x 5deal: 2575-2595, basis 09 "47max" 55x 6: 2555-2565, base difference 09 "20pm" 22.

Future forecast: at present, the pre-festival warehouse of the manufacturers in the Chinese market has been basically completed, the overall supply of negotiable goods in the main producing area is not much, and there is a maintenance plan for the market equipment in the later stage, and under the support of little supply pressure, the price in the Chinese market is up. The downstream market still maintains a rigid demand for replenishment, but methanol prices remain high, and the acceptance capacity of downstream high-priced goods is limited, coupled with the fact that pre-festival stock is coming to an end. The number of new orders in the market is limited. At present, the quotation in the Chinese market is running high under the support of little supply pressure, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the downstream demand follow-up and the landing of the plant parking maintenance.