Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the price of soda ash in China is rising steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is between 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the start-up of market enterprises has basically remained stable. The Hangzhou Longshan Plant is recovering, and the start-up of other enterprises has remained stable; The signing of orders in the soda ash market is good, with orders on hand from companies increasing, and the prices of new orders in some areas have increased slightly. As downstream companies successively complete stocking, the market may operate steadily before the holiday.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on April 29, was 2299 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2247 yuan/ton, an increase of-1.27% within the day. The intraday high was 2311 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2233 yuan/ton, with a total position of 831188 lots, a month-on-month period of-52326 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices opened high and low, with funds leaving the market before the holiday mainly cashing in profits. The quotations of major manufacturers have not been adjusted this week, which has temporarily suspended the momentum for the surge in futures prices to a certain extent. However, the current supply side maintenance disturbance continues. Although supply has recovered recently, there are still companies under maintenance in May and June, and the dynamic supply-demand relationship is tight. The expected contradiction still exists. On the demand side, the raw material inventories of most float glass companies are already relatively safe. Large manufacturers have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and small factories have a high willingness to receive goods. The sustainability of receiving new orders in the short term needs to be considered. Positive feedback from the spot market has further created potential resistance. At present, the main contract is facing strong expectations of summer reductions on the supply side and large growth in photovoltaics on the demand side. The market may maintain a strong trend until the expectation of supply reduction and demand increase cannot be falsified. However, if the positive feedback from the spot market is difficult to maintain in the short term, the market may still face a selling pressure correction.
market outlook
Recently, the market transaction atmosphere is still good, and light soda shipments are relatively good. With the recovery of early maintenance companies, the industry's supply has rebounded. However, in May, some companies still have maintenance plans, and the scale of the maintenance companies is not small, so the market supply will have an impact; As downstream companies have basically completed stocking up, soda factories have some orders in hand, inventories are on a downward trend, and some companies are still willing to increase; Downstream glass companies 'own raw material inventories have reached relatively high levels. Large factories are mainly waiting and seeing, and small factories are relatively active in purchasing. The game between supply and demand in the soda ash market has intensified, and market prices are operating firmly.
