Methanol: The macro impact has weakened. The methanol period has stopped falling and increased slightly

On April 26th, the methanol market price index was 2423.84, up 12.27 from yesterday and 0.51 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on April 25:

China CFR 298-303 US dollars / ton, down 10 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 98-99 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 305.25-306.25 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2350-2390 (0), North Route: 2240 (40), Lunan: 2580 (30), Henan: 2470-2490 (40), Shanxi: 2340-2435 (0), Port: 2580-2630 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-320 (0ax 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 340-370 (0max 0), Southern Line-Northern Shandong 250-300 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices have risen narrowly, futures prices have risen somewhat, and futures market prices have continued to decline, and port spot market prices have been adjusted accordingly. At present, pre-holiday stock preparation in the downstream market has basically entered the end, manufacturers' shipments are better, and spot prices are running firmly under the support of little supply pressure. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is adjusted narrowly, with the quotation on the southern route around 2290 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2240 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 40 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, and the market price remains strong. The market price fluctuation in Shandong, the main consumption area, is limited, and the quotations in some regions have been raised, with 2580 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2550-2560 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a low-end increase of 20 yuan / ton. recently, methanol production enterprises have shipped more smoothly in the field, and most of the factory inventory has been reduced to a low level of operation, and the supply side is well supported. The market quotation in North China is running stably for the time being. Hebei quotation is 2450-2540 yuan / ton today. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, which has a certain support for the mentality of operators; Shanxi quotation today is 2340-2435 yuan / ton, and methanol manufacturers' inventory is low at present. The willingness to lower the market quotation is not high.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. Spot demand is general; in recent months, a small amount of rigid demand replenishment, arbitrage and exchange shipments; long-term high shipments, arbitrage buying cautious, basis weakening. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2610, base difference 09: 101054, basis: 2585-2590, basis: 09: 80, margin: 88: 5. Transaction: 2565-2575, basis: 09: 60, margin: 65: 5: 2555, basis: 09: 48: 5: 2550-2560, basis: 09: 45: 53: 6: 2525-2530, basis: 09: 20: 25.

Future forecast: with the May Day holiday approaching, the downstream market stock is basically coming to an end, the overall transaction atmosphere in the Chinese market is general, and the downstream still maintains rigid demand procurement. However, at present, the price reduction of the manufacturers in the main producing areas is relatively small under the support of low storage pressure, and there are still devices planned for parking and maintenance in the later stage, which has a certain support for the mentality of the operators, but considering that the overall profit of coal-to-methanol is good at present. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the parking and landing of the device. From the point of view of the port market, the arrival volume of methanol foreign ships has decreased periodically recently, while the downstream demand has increased narrowly. Under the normal pick-up of goods in the mainstream reservoir area, methanol port inventory has been narrowly removed this week. At present, the stock in the lower reaches of the festival is coming to an end, but under the support of little inventory pressure, the possibility of a sharp reduction in quotation is relatively small, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the coal price. the landing of the spring inspection of various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.