Analysis of soda ash market
Today, the market price of soda ash in China has temporarily stabilized. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is between 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,000 - 2,150 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,900 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton; the maintenance soda plant will resume construction, and the market operating rate will gradually increase; Demand in the downstream market for soda ash has temporarily stabilized, and companies are more cautious in purchasing. The soda ash market will operate steadily in the short term.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on April 24, was 2105 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2148 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27% within the day. The intraday high was 2188 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2100 yuan/ton, with a total position of 814856 lots, a month-on-month +36150 lots.
Today, soda ash futures prices fell slightly, with funds leaving the market to cash in mainly the proceeds. Fundamentally, recent supply-side overhauls have continued to be repeated, the dynamic supply-demand relationship remains tight, and subsequent photovoltaic growth expectations are strong. Until the overall supply reduction and demand increase expectations cannot be falsified, soda ash prices may remain strong. However, companies with relatively safe raw material inventories in the middle and lower reaches must be resistant to wait-and-see attitudes towards high-priced raw materials. The market's further resonance is limited to a certain extent. In the short term, we need to guard against the correction of the overall macro environment and negative feedback that there may be selling pressure in the middle and upper reaches of the market.
market outlook
The price of soda ash is low, the sentiment of downstream companies to stock up has increased, the number of orders to be issued by soda factories has increased, and manufacturers have more inventory. Some soda factories have more orders, and the supply of goods is tight. Companies have closed orders and will not quote for the time being. It is expected that soda ash prices will rise within a narrow range.
