Methanol: The methanol period is now in shock and falling back downstream, which is mainly in need of transactions

On April 24, the methanol market price index was 2413.86, down 12.61 from yesterday and 0.52 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on April 23:

China CFR 310-314 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 98-99 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 305.25-306.25 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2350-2390 (0), North Route: 2200-2230 (- 30), Lunan: 2600 (- 20), Henan: 2450-2460 (0), Shanxi: 2340-2430 (0), Port: 2615-2700 (- 50)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-320 (0ax 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 340-370 (0max 0), Southern Line-Northern Shandong 240-300 (0max 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (- 10max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market fluctuates and falls, the futures market continues the downward trend, and the price of the port spot market adjusts accordingly. At present, pre-holiday stock preparation in the downstream market has basically entered the end, and manufacturers' shipments are better. Spot prices are running firmly under the support of little supply pressure. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the south line around 2280 yuan / ton and the price on the north line around 2200-2230 yuan / ton. the futures market continues to decline, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry in the market is gradually rising, but at present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not great, and the price reduction of manufacturers is limited. The market price fluctuation in Shandong, the main consumer area, is limited, with 2600 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2530-2560 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Recently, the shipment of methanol production enterprises in the field is relatively smooth, most of the factory inventory has been reduced to a low level of operation, and the supply side is well supported. The market quotation in North China has dropped narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2450-2540 yuan / ton today. At present, the inventory pressure of the manufacturers in the region is not great, which has a certain support for the mentality of the operators, and some of the downstream stocks are required before May Day. There is a little support for the mentality of manufacturers. Today's quotation in Shanxi is 2340-2430 yuan per ton. the lower reaches of some areas conflict with the high price of methanol, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the market is not high, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened, but at present, the inventory of methanol manufacturers is on the low side, and the willingness to lower the market quotation is not high.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, arbitrage and exchange negotiations under the month, the basis stabilized. Long-term individual unilateral low-order enquiries, mainly arbitrage offers. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2615-2635, base difference 09: 120, margin: 125, transaction: 2610-2615, basis: 09: 103, margin: 75: 5, basis: 2580-2585, basis: 09: 70: 75, transaction: 2555-2575, basis: 09: 58, margin: 63: 6: 2525-2545, basis: 09: 30.

Future forecast: with the May Day holiday approaching, the downstream market stock is basically coming to an end, the overall transaction atmosphere in the Chinese market is general, and the downstream still maintains rigid demand procurement. However, at present, the price reduction of the manufacturers in the main producing areas is relatively small under the support of low storage pressure, and there are still devices planned for parking and maintenance in the later stage, which has a certain support for the mentality of the operators, but considering that the overall profit of coal-to-methanol is good at present. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the parking and landing of the device. From the point of view of the port market, the recent arrival volume of foreign ships is still limited, the resources available for sale of methanol in the port area are still tight, and the spot basis margin maintains a relatively strong trend, but the main futures market is weak, and the port spot is mostly lower with the market, although there is a certain negative impact on the Chinese market. At present, the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the Chinese market and the follow-up of downstream demand.