PVC: Futures showed a straight upward trend in early trading, but there was a reduction in positions, and the spot increased slightly tentatively

PVC futures analysis: April 24th V2409 contract opening price: 5870, highest price: 5947, lowest price: 5870, position: 890113, settlement price: 5908, yesterday settlement: 5902, up: 6, daily trading volume: 926590 lots, precipitated capital: 3.778 billion, capital outflow: 41.04 million.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April twenty _ third	April twenty _ fourth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5450-5520	5460-5520	10/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5510-5600	5550-5660	20/30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5570-5610	5590-5630	20/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5400-5600	5400-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5530-5580	5530-5580	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5420-5640	5420-5640	0/0	Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to adjust slightly, spot market prices have maintained this trend recently. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 10 yuan / ton, East China increased 20-30 yuan / ton, South China increased 20 yuan / ton, Northeast China was stable, Central China was stable, Southwest China was stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises still has not been significantly adjusted, most of them are stable, and the quotations of merchants in various regions of the spot market are mostly stable and small, and some merchants tentatively increase slightly, but with little effect. Due to the upward rise of futures prices, the profit margin of the spot market has narrowed to some extent. At present, spot price and one-mouth price coexist, and the basis is adjusted slightly, among which East China basis offer 09 contract-(280330) South China 09 contract-(250-280), North 09 contract-(550-600), Southwest 09 contract-(400). On the whole, the downstream cautious rigid demand replenishment, hang single point on the low side, trading lukewarm, part of a low price a small amount of transactions.

 

From a futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2409 contract rose slightly, followed by a narrow range to the end of the day. After the start of morning trading, the finishing trend of night trading continued, but the intraday upward trend was obvious, and the futures price showed a better rise, reaching a peak of 5947, but the afternoon price was slightly weaker. 2409 contracts fluctuated from 5870 to 5947 throughout the day, with a difference of 12532 positions in 77 and 09 contracts, with 890113 positions so far, and 05 contracts closed at 5754 and 153764 positions.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the futures price of nbsp; PVC2409 contract showed an obvious upward trend in early trading, but showed a reduction in positions, in which the short position was 25.5% higher than that of 24.4%. The slight increase in short positions led to an upward trend in futures prices, and was more inclined to consider short-term short-term profit-taking. With the passage of time, approaching May Day, some positions or reduced positions left the market. Although the trend of the whole intraday price shows an increase, there is still no significant change in the fluctuation range of the futures price compared with the previous period, and continue to test the range given in our forecast. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) three tracks are still downward, and formed a longer upper shadow line of the positive pillar, the short-term price operation continues to test the range of 5850-5980.

 

Spot aspect:    The recent cash realization of the two cities has been rising pressure, falling support, the spot market price adjustment has been difficult to escape the curse of narrow arrangement, but chlor-alkali enterprises today's caustic soda products perform better, some enterprises raise quotations, and PVC feedback is weak, most enterprises do not see obvious adjustment during the week, although production enterprises mainly actively digest PVC inventory, but the spot market is helpless to remove the rigid demand. Can not produce a better inventory transaction, so the PVC spot market performance is not good. In the outer disk, international oil prices rose as the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than a week and investors shifted their attention from geopolitical issues in the Middle East to recent global conditions. At the same time, investors continue to assess the risks to the oil market posed by geopolitical problems in the Middle East. On the whole, the spot market will continue to adjust spot prices narrowly and slightly in the short term.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April twenty _ third	April twenty _ fourth	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	5886	5903	17
	Average spot price in East China	5555	5605	50
	Average spot price in South China	5590	5610	20
	PVC2409 basis difference	-331	-298	33
	V2501 collection	6034	6048	14
	V2409-2501 close	-148	-145	3
	PP2409 collection	7554	7555	1
	Plastic L2409	8356	8360	4
	V--PP basis difference	-1668	-1652	16
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2470	-2457	13

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tudor data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index rose 20.37, or 0.368%, to 5562.98 on April 24. The PVC spot index of ethylene method was 5822.19, up 5.58%, with a range of 0.096%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 259.21.

 

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.23 warehouse orders	4.24 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,159	2,159	0
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	1,090	1,090	0
	The central reserve is near the port	118	118	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	711	711	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,796	1,796	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	396	396	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	471	471	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	929	929	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	60	60	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,496	1,496	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	784	784	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	382	415	33
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,773	4,905	132
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	5,774	5,936	162
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	1,053	1,168	115
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	184	184	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	4,001	4,001	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	518	518	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	379	379	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	150	150	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	0	300	300
PVC subtotal	Sinotrans East China	1,560	1,560	0
Total		25,903	26,645	742

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

The information provided in this report is for reference only.