Methanol: Futures market highs fall back, Chinese market adjusts within a narrow range

On April 23, the methanol market price index was 2426.47, up 0.49 from the previous working day and 0.02% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on April 22:

China CFR 310-316 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 98-99 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 305.25-306.25 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2350-2390 (50), North Route: 2230-2250 (0), Lunan: 2620 (0), Henan: 2450-2480 (- 40), Shanxi: 2340-2430 (- 20), Port: 2665-2730 (- 5)

Freight:

Northern route-230-320 (0ram 0), northern route-southern Shandong 340-370 (0amp 0), southern route-northern Shandong 240-290 (0amp 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 240-280 (- 10 Compay 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market is high, the spot market price is slightly adjusted, the cautious mood of the operators in the market is obvious, the overall market trading atmosphere has weakened, and the transaction situation of some bidding enterprises is general. Many failed auctions occur, but taking into account the inventory pressure of some manufacturers, the factory price reduction is limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern line around 2300-2320 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2230-2250 yuan / ton. today, the futures market has fallen sharply, and the enthusiasm of operators in the market to enter the market and replenish goods has been reduced somewhat. However, with the smoothness of previous shipments, most of the factory inventory in the region has been reduced to low operation, the market price fluctuation in the region is small, and the price in Guanzhong area is running firmly. The market price fluctuation in Shandong, the main consumer area, is limited, with 2620 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2530-2650 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Recently, the shipment of methanol production enterprises in the field is relatively smooth, most of the factory inventory has been reduced to a low level of operation, and the supply side is well supported. The market quotation in North China fell narrowly. Hebei quoted price 2450-2540 yuan / ton today, 60 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the region is not great, which has a certain support for the mentality of operators, but with the recent rise and fall of methanol futures, the atmosphere of buying in the market has weakened. Shanxi quoted price of 2340-2430 yuan / ton today, the bidding price of some methanol enterprises fell slightly compared with last week, and a small number of failed auctions occurred, but the overall trading volume was OK, and the warehouse drainage of methanol manufacturers was relatively smooth.

Port market: methanol futures fell today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, the basis stabilized. (4) follow up as needed, and the basis difference is strong. Long-term shipments increased, buying cautious delivery, the basis is slightly weak. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2665-2690, base difference 05 "85max" 90 position 4 transaction: 2615-2660, base difference 05 "60 pound" 65pm 105 pound "110cleft 5 deal: 2590-2640, base difference 0535 prime" 459080ple "90cross 5 deal: 2575-2615, basis difference 0960pm 65bot 6 transaction: 2575, basis difference 0930pm.

Forecast in the future: recently, the futures price of the main contract of methanol will fall high under the influence of the news, and with the downward adjustment of the price in the port spot market, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market will gradually rise, and the basis is slightly weak. however, the Chinese market is operating at a high level under the influence of little supply pressure and active stock preparation before the downstream festival. although some downstream operators hold certain resistance to the current high prices, with the approach of the May Day holiday There is still a certain stock demand in the downstream market, and the transaction situation of market rigid demand still exists. in addition, with the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage and the support of little inventory pressure, the quotation in the Chinese market remains at a high level. At present, the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the Chinese market and the follow-up of downstream demand.